Minnesota Wild at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Jonas BrodinGoals1
- Matt BoldyAssists1
- Jonas BrodinPoints1
Rangers- Mika ZibanejadAssists1
- Mika ZibanejadPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:24Kirill Kaprizov Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Hartman (1)3–1
- P38:16Danila Yurov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Johansson (3)2–1
- P15:10Jonas Brodin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (6), Joel Eriksson Ek (4)1–1
- P10:57Artemi Panarin Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (2), Will Borgen (2)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:57Artemi Panarin Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (2), Will Borgen (2)MIN 0 – 1 NYR · NYR 59% → 72% +13NYR 59% → 72%+13 pts
- P15:10Jonas Brodin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (6), Joel Eriksson Ek (4)MIN 1 – 1 NYR · MIN 28% → 42% +14MIN 28% → 42%+14 pts
- P38:16Danila Yurov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Johansson (3)MIN 2 – 1 NYR · MIN 46% → 77% +31MIN 46% → 77%+31 pts
- P318:24Kirill Kaprizov Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Hartman (1)MIN 3 – 1 NYR · MIN 99% → >99% +1MIN 99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 59%
- ML MIN +135 / NYR -155
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- NYR: Elo 58.5%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- NYR -143
- MIN +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 2.5 – 3.0 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +4 | MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +60 Elo | NYR 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 56.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.130th of 32 |
| 27th of 323.7 | Goals allowed | 1.72nd of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.8 | Margin | +0.413th of 32 |
| 19th of 3248.2% | Shot share | 53.4%9th of 32 |
| 20th of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 94.9%1st of 32 |
| 22nd of 321–3 | Road vs home | 0–328th of 32 |
| 10th of 321509 | Opponent Elo | 150613th of 32 |
| 20th of 321491 | Elo rating | 151013th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 3–3 | 5–2 |
| Last 10 | 3–3 | 5–2 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 2–1 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–2 | 2–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–2 | 2–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 1–3 NYR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.