New York Islanders at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Anthony DuclairGoals1
- Marshall WarrenAssists2
- Marshall WarrenPoints2
Flyers- Trevor ZegrasGoals2
- Trevor ZegrasAssists1
- Trevor ZegrasPoints3
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Matvei Michkov Goal Snap Shot1–2
- SO0:00Simon Holmstrom Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- SO0:00Trevor Zegras Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- P37:32Trevor Zegras Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Bobby Brink (3), Cam York (4)3–3
- P34:21Maxim Tsyplakov Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Marshall Warren (2), Tony DeAngelo (3)3–2
- P31:54Trevor Zegras Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Christian Dvorak (2), Jamie Drysdale (3)2–2
- P210:29Christian Dvorak Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Trevor Zegras (6), Matvei Michkov (2)2–1
- P26:15Anthony Duclair Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Marshall Warren (1), Anders Lee (6)2–0
- P19:51Simon Holmstrom Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:51Simon Holmstrom Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (3)NYI 1 – 0 PHI · NYI 48% → 64% +16NYI 48% → 64%+16 pts
- P210:29Christian Dvorak Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Trevor Zegras (6), Matvei Michkov (2)NYI 2 – 1 PHI · PHI 16% → 31% +16PHI 16% → 31%+16 pts
- P31:54Trevor Zegras Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Christian Dvorak (2), Jamie Drysdale (3)NYI 2 – 2 PHI · PHI 26% → 51% +25PHI 26% → 51%+25 pts
- P34:21Maxim Tsyplakov Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Marshall Warren (2), Tony DeAngelo (3)NYI 3 – 2 PHI · NYI 49% → 75% +26NYI 49% → 75%+26 pts
- P37:32Trevor Zegras Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Bobby Brink (3), Cam York (4)NYI 3 – 3 PHI · PHI 22% → 51% +29PHI 22% → 51%+29 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flyers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 52%
- ML NYI +100 / PHI -120
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- PHI: Elo 52.9%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- PHI -109
- NYI +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 3.2 – 3.3 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1459 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | −3 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +20 Elo | PHI 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 50.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 323.9 | Goals scored | 2.726th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 2.69th of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.4 | Margin | +0.112th of 32 |
| 19th of 3249.4% | Shot share | 45.1%28th of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 90.8%12th of 32 |
| 15th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 3–16th of 32 |
| 15th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 15263rd of 32 |
| 25th of 321473 | Elo rating | 145930th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 3–4 | 5–2 |
| Last 10 | 3–4 | 5–2 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 6–1 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–1 | 4–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 4–3 PHI in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.