Detroit Red Wings at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Dylan LarkinGoals1
- J.T. CompherAssists1
- Dylan LarkinPoints1
Islanders- Emil HeinemanGoals2
- Anders LeeAssists3
- Anders LeePoints3
Scoring summary
- P317:20Jonatan Berggren Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Compher (2), Michael Brandsegg-Nygård (1)2–7
- P37:57Simon Holmstrom Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Anders Lee (5), Scott Mayfield (3)1–7
- P37:19Emil Heineman Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Bo Horvat (4), Ryan Pulock (4)1–6
- P33:11Dylan Larkin Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Emmitt Finnie (4), Alex DeBrincat (7)1–5
- P219:34Mathew Barzal Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Cizikas (1)0–5
- P213:09Kyle Palmieri Goal (3) Deflected, assists: Ryan Pulock (3), Mathew Barzal (5)0–4
- P27:25Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Anders Lee (4), Tony DeAngelo (2)0–3
- P114:56Emil Heineman Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Bo Horvat (3), Jonathan Drouin (4)0–2
- P12:05Tony DeAngelo Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Anders Lee (3), Simon Holmstrom (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:05Tony DeAngelo Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Anders Lee (3), Simon Holmstrom (3)DET 0 – 1 NYI · NYI 55% → 69% +14NYI 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P114:56Emil Heineman Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Bo Horvat (3), Jonathan Drouin (4)DET 0 – 2 NYI · NYI 70% → 83% +13NYI 70% → 83%+13 pts
- P27:25Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Anders Lee (4), Tony DeAngelo (2)DET 0 – 3 NYI · NYI 86% → 94% +8NYI 86% → 94%+8 pts
- P213:09Kyle Palmieri Goal (3) Deflected, assists: Ryan Pulock (3), Mathew Barzal (5)DET 0 – 4 NYI · NYI 96% → 99% +3NYI 96% → 99%+3 pts
- P219:34Mathew Barzal Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Cizikas (1)DET 0 – 5 NYI · NYI >99% → >99% +0NYI >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Islanders 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NYI 55%
- ML DET +115 / NYI -135
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- NYI: Elo 54.3%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- NYI -124
- DET +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 2.6 – 2.9 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | DET on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +9 | DET: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · NYI: David Rittich: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +30 Elo | NYI 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 58.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 57.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYI 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.38th of 32 |
| 9th of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 3.729th of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.6 | Margin | −0.321st of 32 |
| 12th of 3251.5% | Shot share | 49.9%16th of 32 |
| 16th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 88.5%25th of 32 |
| 14th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 2–215th of 32 |
| 5th of 321522 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 32 |
| 14th of 321506 | Elo rating | 146827th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–2 | 2–4 |
| Last 10 | 5–2 | 2–4 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 5–1 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 2–5 | 5–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–5 | 5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 5–1 NYI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 6.