Pittsburgh Penguins at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Sidney CrosbyGoals1
- Matt DumbaAssists1
- Sidney CrosbyPoints1
Flyers- Travis KonecnyGoals1
- Sean CouturierAssists1
- Travis KonecnyPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Bobby Brink Goal Backhand1–2
- SO0:00Evgeni Malkin Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- SO0:00Matvei Michkov Goal Backhand1–2
- P311:57Sidney Crosby Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Filip Hallander (3), Bryan Rust (5)2–2
- P22:46Travis Konecny Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Couturier (7), Bobby Brink (4)1–2
- P117:25Bobby Brink Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Cates (3), Trevor Zegras (7)1–1
- P110:19Justin Brazeau Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Mantha (5), Mathew Dumba (1)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:19Justin Brazeau Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Mantha (5), Mathew Dumba (1)PIT 1 – 0 PHI · PIT 40% → 55% +16PIT 40% → 55%+16 pts
- P117:25Bobby Brink Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Cates (3), Trevor Zegras (7)PIT 1 – 1 PHI · PHI 43% → 60% +17PHI 43% → 60%+17 pts
- P22:46Travis Konecny Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Couturier (7), Bobby Brink (4)PIT 1 – 2 PHI · PHI 59% → 76% +17PHI 59% → 76%+17 pts
- P311:57Sidney Crosby Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Filip Hallander (3), Bryan Rust (5)PIT 2 – 2 PHI · PIT 14% → 46% +32PIT 14% → 46%+32 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flyers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 61%
- ML PIT +150 / PHI -175
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.5 pts
- PHI: Elo 53.9%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- PHI -159
- PIT +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 2.9 – 3.6 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1461 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | PIT on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −3 | PIT: Arturs Silovs: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +27 Elo | PHI 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 57.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 323.8 | Goals scored | 2.925th of 32 |
| 9th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 2.68th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+1.1 | Margin | +0.311th of 32 |
| 30th of 3245.5% | Shot share | 45.8%29th of 32 |
| 6th of 3291.5% | Save percentage | 90.5%11th of 32 |
| 3rd of 324–1 | Road vs home | 4–16th of 32 |
| 29th of 321488 | Opponent Elo | 15202nd of 32 |
| 21st of 321492 | Elo rating | 146128th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–2 | 5–3 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–3 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 7–1 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 6–4 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 4–4 PHI in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.