St. Louis Blues at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Jordan KyrouGoals1
- Tyler TuckerAssists1
- Jordan KyrouPoints1
Penguins- Bryan RustGoals2
- Erik KarlssonAssists3
- Bryan RustPoints3
Scoring summary
- P316:59Evgeni Malkin Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Brazeau (6)3–6
- P316:39Sidney Crosby Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (4)3–5
- P34:35Mathieu Joseph Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Bjugstad (1)3–4
- P30:42Bryan Rust Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Erik Karlsson (9), Sidney Crosby (7)2–4
- P26:37Parker Wotherspoon Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (6), Erik Karlsson (8)2–3
- P115:43Jordan Kyrou Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Schenn (3), Dylan Holloway (3)2–2
- P14:15Nick Bjugstad Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan Walker (3), Tyler Tucker (3)1–2
- P10:55Anthony Mantha Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (13), Justin Brazeau (5)0–2
- P10:39Bryan Rust Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Erik Karlsson (7), Filip Hallander (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:39Bryan Rust Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Erik Karlsson (7), Filip Hallander (2)STL 0 – 1 PIT · PIT 49% → 63% +14PIT 49% → 63%+14 pts
- P115:43Jordan Kyrou Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Schenn (3), Dylan Holloway (3)STL 2 – 2 PIT · STL 34% → 51% +17STL 34% → 51%+17 pts
- P26:37Parker Wotherspoon Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (6), Erik Karlsson (8)STL 2 – 3 PIT · PIT 49% → 68% +19PIT 49% → 68%+19 pts
- P30:42Bryan Rust Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Erik Karlsson (9), Sidney Crosby (7)STL 2 – 4 PIT · PIT 74% → 90% +16PIT 74% → 90%+16 pts
- P34:35Mathieu Joseph Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Bjugstad (1)STL 3 – 4 PIT · STL 8% → 24% +16STL 8% → 24%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blues 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- STL 51%
- ML STL -115 / PIT -105
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.5 pts
- STL: Elo 46.6%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- STL -104
- PIT +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.3 – 3.2 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −11 | +1 | STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.28 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +24 Elo | PIT 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 50.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.67th of 32 |
| 31st of 324.1 | Goals allowed | 2.79th of 32 |
| 30th of 32−1.1 | Margin | +0.94th of 32 |
| 15th of 3249.6% | Shot share | 45.2%30th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3285.0% | Save percentage | 91.8%3rd of 32 |
| 7th of 322–1 | Road vs home | 2–214th of 32 |
| 19th of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 148630th of 32 |
| 14th of 321512 | Elo rating | 148821st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 3–5 | 7–2 |
| Last 10 | 3–5 | 7–2 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 6–1 |
| Overs–unders | 5–3 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–3 | 5–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 2–2 PIT in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.