St. Louis Blues at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Jake NeighboursGoals2
- Robert ThomasAssists2
- Jake NeighboursPoints2
Red Wings- Simon EdvinssonGoals2
- Andrew CoppAssists2
- Simon EdvinssonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:47Simon Edvinsson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–6
- P310:48Simon Edvinsson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Compher (3), Jonatan Berggren (2)4–5
- P310:01Alex DeBrincat Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: none4–4
- P219:01J.T. Compher Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Travis Hamonic (1), Andrew Copp (3)4–3
- P218:34Emmitt Finnie Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: none4–2
- P27:52Jonatan Berggren Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Andrew Copp (2), Axel Sandin-Pellikka (1)4–1
- P23:12Jake Neighbours Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (5), Jimmy Snuggerud (3)4–0
- P20:59Pavel Buchnevich Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Dylan Holloway (2), Justin Faulk (3)3–0
- P112:54Jake Neighbours Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Justin Faulk (2), Robert Thomas (4)2–0
- P17:43Jordan Kyrou Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Cam Fowler (2), Jimmy Snuggerud (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:43Jordan Kyrou Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Cam Fowler (2), Jimmy Snuggerud (2)STL 1 – 0 DET · STL 51% → 66% +15STL 51% → 66%+15 pts
- P112:54Jake Neighbours Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Justin Faulk (2), Robert Thomas (4)STL 2 – 0 DET · STL 67% → 80% +13STL 67% → 80%+13 pts
- P219:01J.T. Compher Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Travis Hamonic (1), Andrew Copp (3)STL 4 – 3 DET · DET 11% → 26% +16DET 11% → 26%+16 pts
- P310:01Alex DeBrincat Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: noneSTL 4 – 4 DET · DET 18% → 50% +31DET 18% → 50%+31 pts
- P310:48Simon Edvinsson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Compher (3), Jonatan Berggren (2)STL 4 – 5 DET · DET 50% → 82% +33DET 50% → 82%+33 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blues 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- STL 51%
- ML STL -115 / DET -105
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- STL: Elo 48.3%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- STL -104
- DET +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.8 – 2.7 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −5 | STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · DET: John Gibson: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +12 Elo | DET 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 52.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.016th of 32 |
| 30th of 323.9 | Goals allowed | 3.118th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−1.0 | Margin | −0.116th of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.4% | Shot share | 51.7%12th of 32 |
| 31st of 3285.5% | Save percentage | 88.2%28th of 32 |
| 1st of 322–0 | Road vs home | 4–15th of 32 |
| 21st of 321492 | Opponent Elo | 15165th of 32 |
| 12th of 321516 | Elo rating | 150116th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 3–4 | 5–3 |
| Last 10 | 3–4 | 5–3 |
| Favorite | 1–4 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders | 4–3 | 3–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–3 | 3–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 2–2 DET in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.