Los Angeles Kings at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Adrian KempeGoals1
- Adrian KempeAssists1
- Adrian KempePoints2
Blues- Jordan KyrouAssists1
- Jordan KyrouPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT1:50Adrian Kempe Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Andrei Kuzmenko (3), Kevin Fiala (2)2–1
- P32:18Justin Faulk Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (2), Jordan Kyrou (3)1–1
- P21:47Alex Laferriere Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Adrian Kempe (6)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:47Alex Laferriere Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Adrian Kempe (6)LA 1 – 0 STL · LA 47% → 65% +18LA 47% → 65%+18 pts
- P32:18Justin Faulk Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (2), Jordan Kyrou (3)LA 1 – 1 STL · STL 27% → 52% +25STL 27% → 52%+25 pts
- OT1:50Adrian Kempe Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Andrei Kuzmenko (3), Kevin Fiala (2)LA 2 – 1 STL · LA 49% → 94% +45LA 49% → 94%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blues 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- STL 53%
- ML LA +105 / STL -125
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.1 pts
- STL: Elo 56.4%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- STL -114
- LA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 2.7 – 2.8 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +2 | LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +44 Elo | STL 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 52.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.014th of 32 |
| 30th of 324.0 | Goals allowed | 3.625th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−1.2 | Margin | −0.625th of 32 |
| 15th of 3250.0% | Shot share | 52.1%9th of 32 |
| 28th of 3287.5% | Save percentage | 85.8%31st of 32 |
| 18th of 321–2 | Road vs home | 1–225th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321533 | Opponent Elo | 148625th of 32 |
| 12th of 321516 | Elo rating | 152410th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LA |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 3–3 | 3–2 |
| Last 10 | 3–3 | 3–2 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 3–3 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–3 | 3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 2–4 STL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.