Carolina Hurricanes at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Jordan StaalGoals2
- K'Andre MillerAssists2
- Jordan StaalPoints2
Kings- Trevor MooreGoals1
- Adrian KempeAssists2
- Adrian KempePoints2
Scoring summary
- OT1:45Seth Jarvis Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (6), K'Andre Miller (2)4–3
- P311:02Kevin Fiala Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (5)3–3
- P216:04Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinton Byfield (4), Adrian Kempe (4)3–2
- P24:35Trevor Moore Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (2), Joel Edmundson (1)3–1
- P23:43Jesperi Kotkaniemi Goal (1) Backhand, assists: K'Andre Miller (1)3–0
- P13:58Jordan Staal Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Mike Reilly (2), Jalen Chatfield (2)2–0
- P10:12Jordan Staal Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: William Carrier (2), Jordan Martinook (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:12Jordan Staal Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: William Carrier (2), Jordan Martinook (4)CAR 1 – 0 LA · CAR 55% → 69% +14CAR 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P13:58Jordan Staal Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Mike Reilly (2), Jalen Chatfield (2)CAR 2 – 0 LA · CAR 69% → 81% +12CAR 69% → 81%+12 pts
- P216:04Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinton Byfield (4), Adrian Kempe (4)CAR 3 – 2 LA · LA 11% → 25% +15LA 11% → 25%+15 pts
- P311:02Kevin Fiala Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (5)CAR 3 – 3 LA · LA 16% → 48% +32LA 16% → 48%+32 pts
- OT1:45Seth Jarvis Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (6), K'Andre Miller (2)CAR 4 – 3 LA · CAR 51% → 95% +43CAR 51% → 95%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 55%
- ML CAR -135 / LA +115
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- CAR: Elo 50.6%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- CAR -124
- LA +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 2.9 – 2.6 LA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1548 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | −15 | CAR: Brandon Bussi: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · LA: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.38 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +4 Elo | CAR 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 50.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 324.8 | Goals scored | 2.821st of 32 |
| 4th of 322.0 | Goals allowed | 4.029th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+2.8 | Margin | −1.229th of 32 |
| 1st of 3263.1% | Shot share | 52.1%11th of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.7% | Save percentage | 86.8%27th of 32 |
| 1st of 322–0 | Road vs home | 0–228th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321447 | Opponent Elo | 15255th of 32 |
| 5th of 321548 | Elo rating | 151912th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  CAR |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 44–53 | 43–45 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 40–46 | 24–32 |
| Underdog | 4–7 | 19–13 |
| Overs–unders | 43–54 | 39–49 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 1–3 LA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.