Carolina Hurricanes at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Seth JarvisGoals2
- Shayne GostisbehereAssists3
- Seth JarvisPoints3
Ducks- Leo CarlssonGoals1
- Alex KillornAssists1
- Leo CarlssonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P315:48Sebastian Aho Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (2)4–1
- P32:38Alexander Nikishin Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (5), Shayne Gostisbehere (6)3–1
- P211:32Leo Carlsson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Killorn (1), Drew Helleson (1)2–1
- P210:22Seth Jarvis Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Jackson Blake (3), Shayne Gostisbehere (5)2–0
- P114:54Seth Jarvis Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:54Seth Jarvis Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (4)CAR 1 – 0 ANA · CAR 61% → 76% +15CAR 61% → 76%+15 pts
- P210:22Seth Jarvis Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Jackson Blake (3), Shayne Gostisbehere (5)CAR 2 – 0 ANA · CAR 77% → 90% +12CAR 77% → 90%+12 pts
- P211:32Leo Carlsson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Killorn (1), Drew Helleson (1)CAR 2 – 1 ANA · ANA 10% → 22% +13ANA 10% → 22%+13 pts
- P32:38Alexander Nikishin Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (5), Shayne Gostisbehere (6)CAR 3 – 1 ANA · CAR 80% → 94% +13CAR 80% → 94%+13 pts
- P315:48Sebastian Aho Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (2)CAR 4 – 1 ANA · CAR >99% → >99% +0CAR >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 63%
- ML CAR -190 / ANA +160
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- CAR: Elo 57.8%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- CAR -170
- ANA +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.6 – 2.9 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1456 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +1 | CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +54 Elo | CAR 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 58.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 325.0 | Goals scored | 4.04th of 32 |
| 7th of 322.3 | Goals allowed | 4.027th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+2.7 | Margin | 0.017th of 32 |
| 1st of 3265.0% | Shot share | 56.4%4th of 32 |
| 21st of 3288.7% | Save percentage | 84.8%30th of 32 |
| 1st of 311–0 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 32 |
| 32nd of 321444 | Opponent Elo | 144531st of 32 |
| 5th of 321544 | Elo rating | 145629th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  CAR |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 44–53 | 55–27 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 40–46 | 4–3 |
| Underdog | 4–7 | 51–24 |
| Overs–unders | 43–54 | 33–49 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 2–2 ANA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.