Utah Mammoth at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mammoth- Logan CooleyGoals3
- JJ PeterkaAssists3
- Logan CooleyPoints4
Blues- Nathan WalkerGoals1
- Oskar SundqvistAssists2
- Oskar SundqvistPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:20Clayton Keller Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (8), Barrett Hayton (2)7–4
- P39:51Nick Schmaltz Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (4), Clayton Keller (8)6–4
- P35:43Philip Broberg Goal (1) Wrap-around, assists: Oskar Sundqvist (2), Colton Parayko (4)5–4
- P32:19Nathan Walker Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Oskar Sundqvist (1), Dylan Holloway (1)5–3
- P219:24Clayton Keller Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (7), JJ Peterka (5)5–2
- P27:13Pavel Buchnevich Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (3), Jordan Kyrou (4)4–2
- P25:58Pius Suter Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Colton Parayko (3), Mathieu Joseph (2)4–1
- P110:55Logan Cooley Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Guenther (5), Mikhail Sergachev (3)4–0
- P17:57Logan Cooley Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Dylan Guenther (4), Olli Määttä (1)3–0
- P16:07Logan Cooley Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Dylan Guenther (3), JJ Peterka (4)2–0
- P13:18Ian Cole Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: JJ Peterka (3), Logan Cooley (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:18Ian Cole Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: JJ Peterka (3), Logan Cooley (2)UTA 1 – 0 STL · UTA 50% → 65% +15UTA 50% → 65%+15 pts
- P16:07Logan Cooley Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Dylan Guenther (3), JJ Peterka (4)UTA 2 – 0 STL · UTA 65% → 78% +13UTA 65% → 78%+13 pts
- P17:57Logan Cooley Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Dylan Guenther (4), Olli Määttä (1)UTA 3 – 0 STL · UTA 78% → 88% +10UTA 78% → 88%+10 pts
- P35:43Philip Broberg Goal (1) Wrap-around, assists: Oskar Sundqvist (2), Colton Parayko (4)UTA 5 – 4 STL · STL 7% → 23% +16STL 7% → 23%+16 pts
- P39:51Nick Schmaltz Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (4), Clayton Keller (8)UTA 6 – 4 STL · UTA 81% → 96% +15UTA 81% → 96%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blues 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- STL 50%
- ML UTA -110 / STL -110
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.7 pts
- STL: Elo 55.7%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- STL -100
- UTA -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTA 2.8 – 2.8 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTA | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −8 | UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +40 Elo | STL 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 54.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTA | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.725th of 32 |
| 4th of 322.3 | Goals allowed | 3.320th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.7 | Margin | −0.725th of 32 |
| 4th of 3255.4% | Shot share | 50.2%14th of 32 |
| 12th of 3290.8% | Save percentage | 87.1%30th of 32 |
| 19th of 321–2 | Road vs home | 1–327th of 32 |
| 31st of 321475 | Opponent Elo | 149023rd of 32 |
| 14th of 321504 | Elo rating | 152110th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTA |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 4–3 | 3–3 |
| Last 10 | 4–3 | 3–3 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 2–5 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–5 | 3–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTA 2–2 STL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.
