Colorado Avalanche at Utah Mammoth, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Cale MakarGoals1
- Parker KellyAssists1
- Cale MakarPoints1
Mammoth- Mikhail SergachevGoals1
- Mikhail SergachevAssists2
- Mikhail SergachevPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT0:33Dylan Guenther Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Clayton Keller (7), Mikhail Sergachev (2)3–4
- P317:44Martin Necas Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: none3–3
- P35:20Mikhail Sergachev Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: none2–3
- P31:10Jack Drury Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Ross Colton (1)2–2
- P212:30Lawson Crouse Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Kevin Stenlund (1), Michael Carcone (1)1–2
- P29:17Nick Schmaltz Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (6), Mikhail Sergachev (1)1–1
- P15:29Cale Makar Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Parker Kelly (1), Zakhar Bardakov (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P212:30Lawson Crouse Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Kevin Stenlund (1), Michael Carcone (1)COL 1 – 2 UTA · UTA 45% → 66% +21UTA 45% → 66%+21 pts
- P31:10Jack Drury Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Ross Colton (1)COL 2 – 2 UTA · COL 29% → 54% +25COL 29% → 54%+25 pts
- P35:20Mikhail Sergachev Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: noneCOL 2 – 3 UTA · UTA 46% → 74% +28UTA 46% → 74%+28 pts
- P317:44Martin Necas Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: noneCOL 3 – 3 UTA · COL 3% → 51% +48COL 3% → 51%+48 pts
- OT0:33Dylan Guenther Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Clayton Keller (7), Mikhail Sergachev (2)COL 3 – 4 UTA · UTA 48% → 90% +42UTA 48% → 90%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- COL 57%
- ML COL -145 / UTA +125
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- COL: Elo 54.1%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- COL -133
- UTA +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.0 – 2.5 UTA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | UTA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1561 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | +5 | COL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +28 Elo | COL 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 53.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 2.821st of 32 |
| 1st of 321.7 | Goals allowed | 2.24th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.8 | Margin | +0.710th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3258.0% | Shot share | 56.6%4th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3293.8% | Save percentage | 90.8%9th of 32 |
| 1st of 323–0 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 32 |
| 16th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 146131st of 32 |
| 2nd of 321561 | Elo rating | 150116th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 4–2 | 3–3 |
| Last 10 | 4–2 | 3–3 |
| Favorite | 4–2 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | — | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 1–5 | 1–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–5 | 1–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 3–1 UTA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.
