Nashville Predators at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Matthew WoodGoals1
- Erik HaulaAssists1
- Matthew WoodPoints1
Flyers- Trevor ZegrasGoals2
- Matvei MichkovAssists2
- Trevor ZegrasPoints3
Scoring summary
- P315:54Travis Konecny Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Christian Dvorak (3)1–4
- P37:00Trevor Zegras Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Cam York (5), Noah Cates (4)1–3
- P218:03Matthew Wood Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Bunting (2), Erik Haula (5)1–2
- P215:41Jamie Drysdale Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Matvei Michkov (4), Trevor Zegras (8)0–2
- P212:45Trevor Zegras Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Matvei Michkov (3), Owen Tippett (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P212:45Trevor Zegras Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Matvei Michkov (3), Owen Tippett (1)NSH 0 – 1 PHI · PHI 56% → 75% +20PHI 56% → 75%+20 pts
- P215:41Jamie Drysdale Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Matvei Michkov (4), Trevor Zegras (8)NSH 0 – 2 PHI · PHI 76% → 90% +14PHI 76% → 90%+14 pts
- P218:03Matthew Wood Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Bunting (2), Erik Haula (5)NSH 1 – 2 PHI · NSH 9% → 23% +14NSH 9% → 23%+14 pts
- P37:00Trevor Zegras Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Cam York (5), Noah Cates (4)NSH 1 – 3 PHI · PHI 81% → 95% +14PHI 81% → 95%+14 pts
- P315:54Travis Konecny Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Christian Dvorak (3)NSH 1 – 4 PHI · PHI >99% → >99% +0PHI >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flyers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 58%
- ML NSH +130 / PHI -155
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- PHI: Elo 57.3%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -140
- NSH +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 2.5 – 3.0 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1456 | 1463 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +10 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · PHI: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.25 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +51 Elo | PHI 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 58.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 58.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.5 | Goals scored | 2.924th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 2.64th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.8 | Margin | +0.313th of 32 |
| 26th of 3247.1% | Shot share | 47.2%25th of 32 |
| 17th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 90.7%8th of 32 |
| 25th of 321–3 | Road vs home | 5–13rd of 32 |
| 7th of 321512 | Opponent Elo | 15144th of 32 |
| 30th of 321456 | Elo rating | 146328th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NSH |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–6 | 5–4 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–4 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–7 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 2–2 PHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.