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Vancouver Canucks at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast

FinalESPN+, FanDuel SN South

Away

Canucks

4-4-0

1–2

at

Home

Predators

3-3-2

VAN 47%NSH 53%

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Bridgestone Arena · ESPN+, FanDuel SN South

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.

NSH favored VAN favored3 scoring plays
P1P2P3NSH50%VAN

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Canucks
Predators

Scoring summary

  • P35:09Cole Smith Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Michael McCarron (2), Justin Barron (2)1–2
  • P211:49Max Sasson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Linus Karlsson (2)1–1
  • P29:01Ryan O'Reilly Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Spencer Stastney (2)0–1

Turning points

The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P29:01Ryan O'Reilly Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Spencer Stastney (2)VAN 0 – 1 NSH · NSH 52% → 71% +19
  2. P211:49Max Sasson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Linus Karlsson (2)VAN 1 – 1 NSH · VAN 28% → 48% +20
  3. P35:09Cole Smith Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Michael McCarron (2), Justin Barron (2)VAN 1 – 2 NSH · NSH 52% → 78% +26

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Predators 53%

Toss-upHit
VAN 47%NSH 53%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

Market
NSH 53%
ML VAN +105 / NSH -125
Pre-line forecast
NSH 49%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
NSH 48%
Ratings vs. market
−4.9 pts
NSH: Elo 48.4%, market 53.2%
Fair odds
NSH -114
VAN +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
VAN 2.7 – 2.8 NSH
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorVANNSHWhy
Team rating14981458Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies+60VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsVAN +11 EloVAN 51.6%
Market-implied ratingsVAN 50.2%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastVAN 50.5%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastNSH 53.2%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Vancouver Canucks and Nashville Predators compared, with each team's league rank
VANStatNSH
16th of 323.0Goals scored2.430th of 32
18th of 323.1Goals allowed3.422nd of 32
17th of 32−0.1Margin−1.029th of 32
27th of 3245.4%Shot share47.6%22nd of 32
13th of 3290.5%Save percentage89.3%20th of 32
13th of 323–2Road vs home1–224th of 32
12th of 321503Opponent Elo150611th of 32
18th of 321498Elo rating145830th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

CanucksPredators
13501400145015001550league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonVANNSH
Puck line3–43–4
Last 103–43–4
Favorite1–30–2
Underdog2–13–2
Overs–unders4–32–5
Overs–unders, last 104–32–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

VAN 8–4 NSH in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 12.