Anaheim Ducks at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Ross JohnstonGoals1
- Ross JohnstonAssists2
- Ross JohnstonPoints3
Predators- Filip ForsbergGoals1
- Ryan O'ReillyAssists1
- Filip ForsbergPoints1
Scoring summary
- P311:40Troy Terry Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Poehling (1), Ross Johnston (2)5–2
- P216:59Beckett Sennecke Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Mason McTavish (5), Ross Johnston (1)4–2
- P215:07Cutter Gauthier Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Jacob Trouba (2)3–2
- P26:39Filip Forsberg Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Roman Josi (4), Ryan O'Reilly (2)2–2
- P24:23Leo Carlsson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jacob Trouba (1), Cutter Gauthier (1)2–1
- P114:29Tyson Jost Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Spencer Stastney (1), Justin Barron (1)1–1
- P18:52Ross Johnston Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Radko Gudas (2), Pavel Mintyukov (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:29Tyson Jost Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Spencer Stastney (1), Justin Barron (1)ANA 1 – 1 NSH · NSH 38% → 55% +17NSH 38% → 55%+17 pts
- P24:23Leo Carlsson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jacob Trouba (1), Cutter Gauthier (1)ANA 2 – 1 NSH · ANA 46% → 64% +19ANA 46% → 64%+19 pts
- P26:39Filip Forsberg Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Roman Josi (4), Ryan O'Reilly (2)ANA 2 – 2 NSH · NSH 35% → 54% +19NSH 35% → 54%+19 pts
- P215:07Cutter Gauthier Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Jacob Trouba (2)ANA 3 – 2 NSH · ANA 47% → 68% +22ANA 47% → 68%+22 pts
- P216:59Beckett Sennecke Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Mason McTavish (5), Ross Johnston (1)ANA 4 – 2 NSH · ANA 69% → 86% +17ANA 69% → 86%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Predators 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NSH 55%
- ML ANA +115 / NSH -135
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- NSH: Elo 56.9%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- NSH -124
- ANA +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 3.1 – 3.4 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1450 | 1463 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +2 | ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +49 Elo | NSH 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 56.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NSH 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.528th of 32 |
| 25th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 3.219th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.8 | Margin | −0.726th of 32 |
| 7th of 3253.9% | Shot share | 47.8%21st of 32 |
| 29th of 3287.2% | Save percentage | 90.2%13th of 32 |
| 18th of 321–2 | Road vs home | 1–114th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321462 | Opponent Elo | 15129th of 32 |
| 30th of 321450 | Elo rating | 146328th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 0–5 | 3–3 |
| Last 10 | 0–5 | 3–3 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 0–2 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 2–3 | 1–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–3 | 1–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 5–1 NSH in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 6.