Anaheim Ducks at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Mason McTavishGoals1
- Troy TerryAssists1
- Mason McTavishPoints1
Blackhawks- Ryan DonatoGoals1
- Ryan DonatoAssists1
- Ryan DonatoPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT2:58Ryan Donato Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (5), Sam Rinzel (2)1–2
- P319:24Mason McTavish Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Troy Terry (4), Jackson LaCombe (1)1–1
- P39:43Frank Nazar Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Kaiser (2), Ryan Donato (2)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P39:43Frank Nazar Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Kaiser (2), Ryan Donato (2)ANA 0 – 1 CHI · CHI 49% → 80% +31CHI 49% → 80%+31 pts
- P319:24Mason McTavish Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Troy Terry (4), Jackson LaCombe (1)ANA 1 – 1 CHI · ANA <1% → 50% +50ANA <1% → 50%+50 pts
- OT2:58Ryan Donato Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (5), Sam Rinzel (2)ANA 1 – 2 CHI · CHI 50% → 98% +48CHI 50% → 98%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ducks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- ANA 52%
- ML ANA -120 / CHI +100
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- ANA: Elo 48.0%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- ANA -109
- CHI +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 3.3 – 3.2 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1452 | 1425 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +6 | ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +14 Elo | CHI 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 51.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ANA 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.39th of 32 |
| 28th of 324.0 | Goals allowed | 2.812th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.8 | Margin | +0.59th of 32 |
| 9th of 3253.2% | Shot share | 44.2%29th of 32 |
| 31st of 3285.6% | Save percentage | 91.0%9th of 32 |
| 14th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 1–223rd of 32 |
| 28th of 321472 | Opponent Elo | 150812th of 32 |
| 30th of 321452 | Elo rating | 142531st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  ANA |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 55–27 | 44–38 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 4–3 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 51–24 | 43–35 |
| Overs–unders | 33–49 | 46–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 2–4 CHI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.