Tampa Bay Lightning at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Zemgus GirgensonsGoals2
- Anthony CirelliAssists2
- Zemgus GirgensonsPoints2
Predators- Luke EvangelistaGoals1
- Erik HaulaAssists2
- Luke EvangelistaPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:33Zemgus Girgensons Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Pontus Holmberg (4), Erik Cernak (2)5–2
- P319:07Nikita Kucherov Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (5), Anthony Cirelli (4)4–2
- P317:54Filip Forsberg Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Evangelista (5), Erik Haula (4)3–2
- P37:58Charle-Edouard D'Astous Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Point (6), Nikita Kucherov (6)3–1
- P35:05Luke Evangelista Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Haula (3), Brady Skjei (3)2–1
- P215:37Brandon Hagel Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (3)2–0
- P110:31Zemgus Girgensons Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Pontus Holmberg (3), Yanni Gourde (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:31Zemgus Girgensons Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Pontus Holmberg (3), Yanni Gourde (1)TB 1 – 0 NSH · TB 60% → 75% +14TB 60% → 75%+14 pts
- P215:37Brandon Hagel Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (3)TB 2 – 0 NSH · TB 78% → 91% +13TB 78% → 91%+13 pts
- P35:05Luke Evangelista Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Haula (3), Brady Skjei (3)TB 2 – 1 NSH · NSH 5% → 19% +14NSH 5% → 19%+14 pts
- P37:58Charle-Edouard D'Astous Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Point (6), Nikita Kucherov (6)TB 3 – 1 NSH · TB 83% → 96% +13TB 83% → 96%+13 pts
- P317:54Filip Forsberg Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Evangelista (5), Erik Haula (4)TB 3 – 2 NSH · NSH <1% → 2% +2NSH <1% → 2%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- TB 61%
- ML TB -175 / NSH +150
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.1 pts
- TB: Elo 54.3%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- TB -159
- NSH +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.1 – 2.4 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1461 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +2 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +30 Elo | TB 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 56.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 2.629th of 32 |
| 16th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.219th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.628th of 32 |
| 29th of 3246.0% | Shot share | 47.9%22nd of 32 |
| 14th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 89.9%15th of 32 |
| 24th of 321–3 | Road vs home | 3–316th of 32 |
| 20th of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 15127th of 32 |
| 11th of 321521 | Elo rating | 146130th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 1–8 | 5–5 |
| Last 10 | 1–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–8 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders | 4–5 | 3–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 3–1 NSH in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.