Anaheim Ducks at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Troy TerryGoals1
- Troy TerryAssists1
- Troy TerryPoints2
Lightning- Anthony CirelliGoals2
- Victor HedmanAssists2
- Anthony CirelliPoints3
Scoring summary
- P316:45Anthony Cirelli Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (5), Victor Hedman (7)3–4
- P38:10Troy Terry Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Cutter Gauthier (2), Leo Carlsson (6)3–3
- P37:11Ryan Poehling Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Ross Johnston (3), Drew Helleson (2)2–3
- P214:20Anthony Cirelli Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Brandon Hagel (3), Victor Hedman (6)1–3
- P212:19Jake Guentzel Goal (4) Deflected, assists: Brayden Point (5), Nikita Kucherov (4)1–2
- P24:42Jacob Trouba Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Troy Terry (6), Mason McTavish (6)1–1
- P19:10Jake Guentzel Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (2), Anthony Cirelli (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:10Jake Guentzel Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (2), Anthony Cirelli (2)ANA 0 – 1 TB · TB 62% → 76% +14TB 62% → 76%+14 pts
- P24:42Jacob Trouba Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Troy Terry (6), Mason McTavish (6)ANA 1 – 1 TB · ANA 23% → 40% +17ANA 23% → 40%+17 pts
- P212:19Jake Guentzel Goal (4) Deflected, assists: Brayden Point (5), Nikita Kucherov (4)ANA 1 – 2 TB · TB 59% → 78% +19TB 59% → 78%+19 pts
- P38:10Troy Terry Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Cutter Gauthier (2), Leo Carlsson (6)ANA 3 – 3 TB · ANA 17% → 44% +28ANA 17% → 44%+28 pts
- P316:45Anthony Cirelli Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (5), Victor Hedman (7)ANA 3 – 4 TB · TB 53% → 95% +42TB 53% → 95%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- TB 63%
- ML ANA +160 / TB -190
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- TB: Elo 59.7%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- TB -170
- ANA +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 2.9 – 3.6 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1460 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −21 | ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · TB: Jonas Johansson: team allows 0.52 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +68 Elo | TB 59.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 63.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 63.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.7 | Goals scored | 2.628th of 32 |
| 26th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 3.423rd of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −0.928th of 32 |
| 11th of 3251.8% | Shot share | 44.5%29th of 32 |
| 29th of 3288.2% | Save percentage | 89.2%21st of 32 |
| 11th of 323–2 | Road vs home | 0–328th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321466 | Opponent Elo | 149123rd of 32 |
| 30th of 321460 | Elo rating | 151711th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 2–5 | 1–6 |
| Last 10 | 2–5 | 1–6 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 0–6 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 4–3 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–3 | 3–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 1–3 TB in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.