Anaheim Ducks at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Mikael GranlundGoals2
- Nikita NesterenkoAssists4
- Mikael GranlundPoints5
Bruins- Morgan GeekieGoals2
- Charlie McAvoyAssists2
- Morgan GeekiePoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:52Mikael Granlund Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Nesterenko (4)7–5
- P315:27Troy Terry Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Nesterenko (3), Mikael Granlund (6)6–5
- P314:57Morgan Geekie Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Zadorov (2)5–5
- P314:32David Pastrnak Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (6), Elias Lindholm (4)5–4
- P37:49Sam Colangelo Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Poehling (2), Jacob Trouba (3)5–3
- P32:52Mikael Granlund Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Troy Terry (5), Frank Vatrano (1)4–3
- P217:10Mason Lohrei Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Henri Jokiharju (3), Michael Eyssimont (3)3–3
- P215:24Jacob Trouba Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Nesterenko (2), Mikael Granlund (5)3–2
- P211:29Cutter Gauthier Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (2), Leo Carlsson (5)2–2
- P28:49Morgan Geekie Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (7), Charlie McAvoy (5)1–2
- P18:06Drew Helleson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Nesterenko (1), Mikael Granlund (4)1–1
- P12:10Casey Mittelstadt Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (7), Viktor Arvidsson (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P215:24Jacob Trouba Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Nesterenko (2), Mikael Granlund (5)ANA 3 – 2 BOS · ANA 49% → 71% +22ANA 49% → 71%+22 pts
- P217:10Mason Lohrei Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Henri Jokiharju (3), Michael Eyssimont (3)ANA 3 – 3 BOS · BOS 28% → 51% +22BOS 28% → 51%+22 pts
- P32:52Mikael Granlund Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Troy Terry (5), Frank Vatrano (1)ANA 4 – 3 BOS · ANA 49% → 75% +25ANA 49% → 75%+25 pts
- P314:57Morgan Geekie Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Zadorov (2)ANA 5 – 5 BOS · BOS 11% → 50% +40BOS 11% → 50%+40 pts
- P315:27Troy Terry Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Nesterenko (3), Mikael Granlund (6)ANA 6 – 5 BOS · ANA 50% → 91% +41ANA 50% → 91%+41 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bruins 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 51%
- ML ANA -105 / BOS -115
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.6 pts
- BOS: Elo 57.7%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -104
- ANA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 3.2 – 3.3 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1455 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | −2 | ANA: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · BOS: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +54 Elo | BOS 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 53.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.016th of 32 |
| 21st of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.319th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.319th of 32 |
| 7th of 3253.8% | Shot share | 48.2%20th of 32 |
| 28th of 3288.2% | Save percentage | 89.1%23rd of 32 |
| 14th of 322–2 | Road vs home | 2–215th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321462 | Opponent Elo | 15157th of 32 |
| 30th of 321455 | Elo rating | 147325th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 1–5 | 6–2 |
| Last 10 | 1–5 | 6–2 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 5–1 |
| Overs–unders | 3–3 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–3 | 4–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 3–1 BOS in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.