Chicago Blackhawks at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Ryan DonatoGoals2
- Teuvo TeravainenAssists2
- Ryan DonatoPoints2
Lightning- Ryan McDonaghGoals1
- Nikita KucherovAssists2
- Ryan McDonaghPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:06Ryan Donato Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Frank Nazar (5), Teuvo Teravainen (7)3–2
- P219:18Ryan McDonagh Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (3), Brayden Point (4)2–2
- P210:16Ryan Donato Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Lukas Reichel (2)2–1
- P26:57Jake Guentzel Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Ryan McDonagh (2), Nikita Kucherov (2)1–1
- P110:41Frank Nazar Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (4), Teuvo Teravainen (6)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:41Frank Nazar Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (4), Teuvo Teravainen (6)CHI 1 – 0 TB · CHI 30% → 45% +15CHI 30% → 45%+15 pts
- P26:57Jake Guentzel Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Ryan McDonagh (2), Nikita Kucherov (2)CHI 1 – 1 TB · TB 48% → 67% +19TB 48% → 67%+19 pts
- P210:16Ryan Donato Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Lukas Reichel (2)CHI 2 – 1 TB · CHI 34% → 54% +20CHI 34% → 54%+20 pts
- P219:18Ryan McDonagh Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (3), Brayden Point (4)CHI 2 – 2 TB · TB 39% → 63% +24TB 39% → 63%+24 pts
- P319:06Ryan Donato Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Frank Nazar (5), Teuvo Teravainen (7)CHI 3 – 2 TB · CHI 47% → >99% +53CHI 47% → >99%+53 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- TB 72%
- ML CHI +245 / TB -300
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- TB: Elo 67.2%, market 72.1%
- Fair odds
- TB -259
- CHI +259 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.6 – 3.9 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1427 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | +4 | CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +124 Elo | TB 67.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 72.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 71.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 72.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.724th of 32 |
| 8th of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 3.525th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.6 | Margin | −0.827th of 32 |
| 29th of 3244.1% | Shot share | 42.7%31st of 32 |
| 7th of 3292.2% | Save percentage | 89.3%22nd of 32 |
| 19th of 321–2 | Road vs home | 0–228th of 32 |
| 17th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 150215th of 32 |
| 31st of 321427 | Elo rating | 152011th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–0 | 1–5 |
| Last 10 | 7–0 | 1–5 |
| Favorite | — | 0–5 |
| Underdog | 7–0 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 2–5 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–5 | 3–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 2–2 TB in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.