Vegas Golden Knights at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- William KarlssonGoals1
- Reilly SmithAssists1
- William KarlssonPoints1
Lightning- Brandon HagelGoals1
- Brandon HagelAssists1
- Brandon HagelPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT0:32Nikita Kucherov Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (4)1–2
- P118:25William Karlsson Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Reilly Smith (1), Shea Theodore (3)1–1
- P14:53Brandon Hagel Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (8), Jake Guentzel (6)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:53Brandon Hagel Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (8), Jake Guentzel (6)VGK 0 – 1 TB · TB 55% → 69% +14TB 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P118:25William Karlsson Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Reilly Smith (1), Shea Theodore (3)VGK 1 – 1 TB · VGK 29% → 46% +16VGK 29% → 46%+16 pts
- OT0:32Nikita Kucherov Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (4)VGK 1 – 2 TB · TB 51% → 92% +40TB 51% → 92%+40 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- TB 55%
- ML VGK +115 / TB -135
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- TB: Elo 53.4%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- TB -124
- VGK +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.1 – 3.4 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | TB and VGK on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +6 | VGK: Carl Lindbom (no track record yet) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +24 Elo | TB 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 55.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 323.8 | Goals scored | 2.827th of 32 |
| 13th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.421st of 32 |
| 6th of 32+0.9 | Margin | −0.627th of 32 |
| 7th of 3253.1% | Shot share | 44.6%30th of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 89.7%18th of 32 |
| 12th of 322–2 | Road vs home | 1–326th of 32 |
| 27th of 321487 | Opponent Elo | 148826th of 32 |
| 6th of 321538 | Elo rating | 151811th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 3–5 | 1–7 |
| Last 10 | 3–5 | 1–7 |
| Favorite | 2–5 | 0–7 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 5–3 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–3 | 4–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 1–3 TB in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.