Vegas Golden Knights at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights
Panthers- A.J. GreerGoals1
- A.J. GreerAssists1
- A.J. GreerPoints2
Scoring summary
- P310:04A.J. Greer Goal (3) Wrap-around, assists: Brad Marchand (6)0–3
- P33:29Cole Schwindt Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonah Gadjovich (3), A.J. Greer (2)0–2
- P117:19Sam Reinhart Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (2), Evan Rodrigues (3)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:19Sam Reinhart Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (2), Evan Rodrigues (3)VGK 0 – 1 FLA · FLA 49% → 66% +17FLA 49% → 66%+17 pts
- P33:29Cole Schwindt Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonah Gadjovich (3), A.J. Greer (2)VGK 0 – 2 FLA · FLA 75% → 92% +16FLA 75% → 92%+16 pts
- P310:04A.J. Greer Goal (3) Wrap-around, assists: Brad Marchand (6)VGK 0 – 3 FLA · FLA 96% → >99% +3FLA 96% → >99%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 51%
- ML VGK -115 / FLA -105
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 43%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 39%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.7 pts
- VGK: Elo 39.4%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- VGK -104
- FLA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 2.8 – 2.7 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −26 | +4 | VGK: Akira Schmid: team allows 0.65 more goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +75 Elo | FLA 60.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 57.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 324.3 | Goals scored | 2.429th of 32 |
| 11th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.117th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+1.4 | Margin | −0.726th of 32 |
| 6th of 3254.6% | Shot share | 53.4%8th of 32 |
| 19th of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 89.2%21st of 32 |
| 8th of 322–1 | Road vs home | 3–17th of 32 |
| 31st of 321477 | Opponent Elo | 147929th of 32 |
| 6th of 321542 | Elo rating | 15523rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 3–4 | 1–8 |
| Last 10 | 3–4 | 1–8 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 1–7 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 5–2 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–2 | 4–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 1–3 FLA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.