Carolina Hurricanes at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Sebastian AhoGoals1
- Nikolaj EhlersAssists1
- Sebastian AhoPoints1
Golden Knights- Ivan BarbashevGoals1
- Mitch MarnerAssists2
- Ivan BarbashevPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:23William Karlsson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitchell Marner (8), Shea Theodore (2)1–4
- P311:06Ivan Barbashev Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–3
- P24:18Sebastian Aho Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (3), Nikolaj Ehlers (1)1–2
- P110:28Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Mitchell Marner (7), Tomas Hertl (4)0–2
- P18:42Jack Eichel Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Saad (1), Ivan Barbashev (5)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:42Jack Eichel Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Saad (1), Ivan Barbashev (5)CAR 0 – 1 VGK · VGK 49% → 64% +15VGK 49% → 64%+15 pts
- P110:28Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Mitchell Marner (7), Tomas Hertl (4)CAR 0 – 2 VGK · VGK 65% → 78% +14VGK 65% → 78%+14 pts
- P24:18Sebastian Aho Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (3), Nikolaj Ehlers (1)CAR 1 – 2 VGK · CAR 18% → 33% +15CAR 18% → 33%+15 pts
- P311:06Ivan Barbashev Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCAR 1 – 3 VGK · VGK 83% → 97% +14VGK 83% → 97%+14 pts
- P318:23William Karlsson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitchell Marner (8), Shea Theodore (2)CAR 1 – 4 VGK · VGK >99% → >99% +0VGK >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 51%
- ML CAR -115 / VGK -105
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- CAR: Elo 46.4%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- CAR -104
- VGK +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.3 – 3.2 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1551 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +7 | CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +25 Elo | VGK 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 54.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 324.6 | Goals scored | 4.32nd of 32 |
| 6th of 322.2 | Goals allowed | 3.219th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+2.4 | Margin | +1.24th of 32 |
| 1st of 3262.1% | Shot share | 55.5%6th of 32 |
| 13th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 88.1%25th of 32 |
| 1st of 323–0 | Road vs home | 2–19th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321461 | Opponent Elo | 146629th of 32 |
| 4th of 321551 | Elo rating | 15376th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 3–2 | 2–4 |
| Last 10 | 3–2 | 2–4 |
| Favorite | 3–2 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | — | — |
| Overs–unders | 3–2 | 5–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–2 | 5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 4–0 VGK in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.