Los Angeles Kings at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Joel ArmiaGoals1
- Brandt ClarkeAssists2
- Joel ArmiaPoints2
Predators- Ryan O'ReillyGoals2
- Ryan O'ReillyAssists1
- Ryan O'ReillyPoints3
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Ozzy Wiesblatt Goal Wrist Shot3–4
- SO0:00Kevin Fiala Goal Wrist Shot3–4
- SO0:00Erik Haula Goal Wrist Shot3–4
- SO0:00Trevor Moore Goal Wrist Shot3–4
- SO0:00Filip Forsberg Goal Wrist Shot3–4
- SO0:00Adrian Kempe Goal Backhand3–4
- SO0:00Ryan O'Reilly Goal Wrist Shot3–4
- P314:44Ryan O'Reilly Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (3), Nicolas Hague (1)4–4
- P39:50Trevor Moore Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandt Clarke (3), Joel Edmundson (2)4–3
- P27:12Cole Smith Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–3
- P25:24Corey Perry Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Armia (4)3–2
- P21:35Joel Armia Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Turcotte (2)2–2
- P20:36Filip Forsberg Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Wood (1), Ryan O'Reilly (3)1–2
- P19:00Ryan O'Reilly Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Spencer Stastney (3)1–1
- P17:27Adrian Kempe Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandt Clarke (2), Andrei Kuzmenko (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:36Filip Forsberg Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Wood (1), Ryan O'Reilly (3)LA 1 – 2 NSH · NSH 43% → 60% +18NSH 43% → 60%+18 pts
- P21:35Joel Armia Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Turcotte (2)LA 2 – 2 NSH · LA 39% → 57% +18LA 39% → 57%+18 pts
- P27:12Cole Smith Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: noneLA 3 – 3 NSH · NSH 25% → 43% +18NSH 25% → 43%+18 pts
- P39:50Trevor Moore Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandt Clarke (3), Joel Edmundson (2)LA 4 – 3 NSH · LA 54% → 84% +30LA 54% → 84%+30 pts
- P314:44Ryan O'Reilly Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (3), Nicolas Hague (1)LA 4 – 4 NSH · NSH 10% → 47% +38NSH 10% → 47%+38 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- LA 59%
- ML LA -160 / NSH +135
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.2 pts
- LA: Elo 53.9%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- LA -145
- NSH +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 3.0 – 2.5 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1460 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +2 | LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +27 Elo | LA 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 53.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.430th of 32 |
| 21st of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.117th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.6 | Margin | −0.828th of 32 |
| 14th of 3250.4% | Shot share | 49.3%18th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3288.9% | Save percentage | 89.9%17th of 32 |
| 11th of 323–2 | Road vs home | 2–215th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321527 | Opponent Elo | 150612th of 32 |
| 10th of 321522 | Elo rating | 146029th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LA |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–3 | 3–5 |
| Last 10 | 5–3 | 3–5 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 5–1 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 3–5 | 2–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–5 | 2–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 3–3 NSH in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.