Los Angeles Kings at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Adrian KempeGoals1
- Quinton ByfieldAssists2
- Adrian KempePoints2
Stars- Wyatt JohnstonGoals1
- Roope HintzAssists2
- Wyatt JohnstonPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT0:37Adrian Kempe Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Quinton Byfield (6)3–2
- P32:32Wyatt Johnston Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (7), Mikko Rantanen (5)2–2
- P26:27Cody Ceci Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (7), Alex Laferriere (1)2–1
- P24:58Jason Robertson Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (6), Wyatt Johnston (3)1–1
- P118:48Corey Perry Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Kevin Fiala (3), Quinton Byfield (5)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:48Corey Perry Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Kevin Fiala (3), Quinton Byfield (5)LA 1 – 0 DAL · LA 46% → 63% +17LA 46% → 63%+17 pts
- P24:58Jason Robertson Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (6), Wyatt Johnston (3)LA 1 – 1 DAL · DAL 35% → 54% +19DAL 35% → 54%+19 pts
- P26:27Cody Ceci Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (7), Alex Laferriere (1)LA 2 – 1 DAL · LA 46% → 65% +19LA 46% → 65%+19 pts
- P32:32Wyatt Johnston Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (7), Mikko Rantanen (5)LA 2 – 2 DAL · DAL 27% → 53% +26DAL 27% → 53%+26 pts
- OT0:37Adrian Kempe Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Quinton Byfield (6)LA 3 – 2 DAL · LA 49% → 91% +42LA 49% → 91%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 55%
- ML LA +115 / DAL -135
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- DAL: Elo 55.7%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- DAL -124
- LA +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 2.6 – 2.9 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −4 | LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +40 Elo | DAL 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 58.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 57.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.311th of 32 |
| 24th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 3.829th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.9 | Margin | −0.523rd of 32 |
| 13th of 3251.2% | Shot share | 46.3%25th of 32 |
| 28th of 3288.1% | Save percentage | 88.3%25th of 32 |
| 14th of 322–2 | Road vs home | 1–225th of 32 |
| 1st of 321529 | Opponent Elo | 15205th of 32 |
| 10th of 321519 | Elo rating | 15307th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LA |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 4–3 | 3–3 |
| Last 10 | 4–3 | 3–3 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 4–1 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 3–4 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–4 | 4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 2–4 DAL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.