Dallas Stars at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Wyatt JohnstonGoals1
- Jason RobertsonAssists2
- Jason RobertsonPoints2
Predators- Jonathan MarchessaultGoals1
- Luke EvangelistaAssists1
- Jonathan MarchessaultPoints1
Scoring summary
- P310:44Mikko Rantanen Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mavrik Bourque (2), Jason Robertson (6)3–2
- P216:29Wyatt Johnston Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Jason Robertson (5)2–2
- P29:36Oskar Bäck Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Radek Faksa (2), Thomas Harley (7)1–2
- P27:15Spencer Stastney Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Luke Evangelista (4), Justin Barron (3)0–2
- P18:02Jonathan Marchessault Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (4), Filip Forsberg (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:02Jonathan Marchessault Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (4), Filip Forsberg (4)DAL 0 – 1 NSH · NSH 43% → 59% +16NSH 43% → 59%+16 pts
- P27:15Spencer Stastney Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Luke Evangelista (4), Justin Barron (3)DAL 0 – 2 NSH · NSH 64% → 80% +16NSH 64% → 80%+16 pts
- P29:36Oskar Bäck Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Radek Faksa (2), Thomas Harley (7)DAL 1 – 2 NSH · DAL 18% → 35% +17DAL 18% → 35%+17 pts
- P216:29Wyatt Johnston Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Jason Robertson (5)DAL 2 – 2 NSH · DAL 32% → 54% +23DAL 32% → 54%+23 pts
- P310:44Mikko Rantanen Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mavrik Bourque (2), Jason Robertson (6)DAL 3 – 2 NSH · DAL 53% → 84% +31DAL 53% → 84%+31 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 57%
- ML DAL -145 / NSH +125
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- DAL: Elo 55.3%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- DAL -133
- NSH +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 3.0 – 2.5 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1463 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | NSH and DAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −5 | −10 | DAL: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · NSH: Justus Annunen: team allows 0.26 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +37 Elo | DAL 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 55.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.728th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.220th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.627th of 32 |
| 20th of 3248.6% | Shot share | 48.0%23rd of 32 |
| 21st of 3288.8% | Save percentage | 89.9%17th of 32 |
| 7th of 322–1 | Road vs home | 3–212th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321520 | Opponent Elo | 150711th of 32 |
| 7th of 321529 | Elo rating | 146328th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 3–5 | 4–5 |
| Last 10 | 3–5 | 4–5 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 4–4 | 3–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4 | 3–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 4–4 NSH in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 8.