Carolina Hurricanes at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Jackson BlakeGoals1
- Nikolaj EhlersAssists1
- Sebastian AhoPoints1
Stars- Miro HeiskanenGoals2
- Mikko RantanenAssists2
- Miro HeiskanenPoints2
Scoring summary
- P311:18Miro Heiskanen Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (4), Mikko Rantanen (7)2–3
- P25:41Sam Steel Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Thomas Harley (6), Mikko Rantanen (6)2–2
- P21:04Miro Heiskanen Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Esa Lindell (3)2–1
- P119:49Sebastian Aho Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (3)2–0
- P14:14Jackson Blake Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:14Jackson Blake Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: noneCAR 1 – 0 DAL · CAR 46% → 61% +15CAR 46% → 61%+15 pts
- P119:49Sebastian Aho Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (3)CAR 2 – 0 DAL · CAR 64% → 79% +15CAR 64% → 79%+15 pts
- P21:04Miro Heiskanen Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Esa Lindell (3)CAR 2 – 1 DAL · DAL 21% → 36% +15DAL 21% → 36%+15 pts
- P25:41Sam Steel Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Thomas Harley (6), Mikko Rantanen (6)CAR 2 – 2 DAL · DAL 34% → 53% +19DAL 34% → 53%+19 pts
- P311:18Miro Heiskanen Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (4), Mikko Rantanen (7)CAR 2 – 3 DAL · DAL 52% → 84% +32DAL 52% → 84%+32 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 54%
- ML CAR +110 / DAL -130
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- DAL: Elo 52.2%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- DAL -119
- CAR +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 2.6 – 2.9 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | −4 | CAR: Brandon Bussi: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +15 Elo | DAL 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 51.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 324.1 | Goals scored | 3.115th of 32 |
| 10th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.728th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+1.4 | Margin | −0.625th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3256.6% | Shot share | 47.6%24th of 32 |
| 12th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 88.3%25th of 32 |
| 3rd of 324–1 | Road vs home | 1–325th of 32 |
| 25th of 321489 | Opponent Elo | 15184th of 32 |
| 4th of 321549 | Elo rating | 15278th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 4–3 | 3–4 |
| Last 10 | 4–3 | 3–4 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 4–3 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–3 | 4–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 2–2 DAL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.