Carolina Hurricanes at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Seth JarvisGoals1
- Seth JarvisAssists1
- Seth JarvisPoints2
Avalanche- Valeri NichushkinGoals2
- Ross ColtonAssists1
- Valeri NichushkinPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Seth Jarvis Goal Wrist Shot1–0
- P314:09Valeri Nichushkin Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Victor Olofsson (4), Cale Makar (6)4–4
- P34:45Martin Necas Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (6), Nathan MacKinnon (5)4–3
- P24:46Parker Kelly Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Sam Malinski (3), Ross Colton (2)4–2
- P113:40Logan Stankoven Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jackson Blake (4), Taylor Hall (3)4–1
- P112:41Sebastian Aho Goal (3) Deflected, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (2), Seth Jarvis (4)3–1
- P17:17Seth Jarvis Goal (7) Backhand, assists: none2–1
- P14:04Valeri Nichushkin Goal (3) Backhand, assists: none1–1
- P13:07Eric Robinson Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi (2), Mike Reilly (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:07Eric Robinson Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi (2), Mike Reilly (3)CAR 1 – 0 COL · CAR 45% → 60% +15CAR 45% → 60%+15 pts
- P14:04Valeri Nichushkin Goal (3) Backhand, assists: noneCAR 1 – 1 COL · COL 40% → 55% +15COL 40% → 55%+15 pts
- P17:17Seth Jarvis Goal (7) Backhand, assists: noneCAR 2 – 1 COL · CAR 45% → 60% +15CAR 45% → 60%+15 pts
- P34:45Martin Necas Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (6), Nathan MacKinnon (5)CAR 4 – 3 COL · COL 8% → 26% +17COL 8% → 26%+17 pts
- P314:09Valeri Nichushkin Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Victor Olofsson (4), Cale Makar (6)CAR 4 – 4 COL · COL 13% → 52% +39COL 13% → 52%+39 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- COL 55%
- ML CAR +115 / COL -135
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- COL: Elo 57.4%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- COL -124
- CAR +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.1 – 3.4 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1558 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +6 | CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · COL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +52 Elo | COL 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 55.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 324.0 | Goals scored | 3.48th of 32 |
| 6th of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 2.02nd of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.5 | Margin | +1.42nd of 32 |
| 1st of 3260.5% | Shot share | 56.7%3rd of 32 |
| 15th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 92.7%4th of 32 |
| 5th of 323–1 | Road vs home | 2–110th of 32 |
| 29th of 321478 | Opponent Elo | 150314th of 32 |
| 5th of 321546 | Elo rating | 15582nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 3–3 | 4–3 |
| Last 10 | 3–3 | 4–3 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 4–3 |
| Underdog | — | — |
| Overs–unders | 3–3 | 2–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–3 | 2–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 2–2 COL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.