Pittsburgh Penguins at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Ryan SheaGoals1
- Kris LetangAssists2
- Bryan RustPoints2
Wild- Kirill KaprizovGoals1
- Marcus JohanssonAssists1
- Kirill KaprizovPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:18Anthony Mantha Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–1
- P37:30Ben Kindel Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (6), Evgeni Malkin (14)3–1
- P36:29Bryan Rust Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Ryan Shea (5), Kris Letang (5)2–1
- P22:18Ryan Shea Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Thomas Novak (4), Kris Letang (4)1–1
- P110:16Kirill Kaprizov Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Marcus Johansson (4), Marco Rossi (9)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:16Kirill Kaprizov Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Marcus Johansson (4), Marco Rossi (9)PIT 0 – 1 MIN · MIN 60% → 74% +14MIN 60% → 74%+14 pts
- P22:18Ryan Shea Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Thomas Novak (4), Kris Letang (4)PIT 1 – 1 MIN · PIT 25% → 41% +16PIT 25% → 41%+16 pts
- P36:29Bryan Rust Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Ryan Shea (5), Kris Letang (5)PIT 2 – 1 MIN · PIT 45% → 74% +29PIT 45% → 74%+29 pts
- P37:30Ben Kindel Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (6), Evgeni Malkin (14)PIT 3 – 1 MIN · PIT 75% → 93% +18PIT 75% → 93%+18 pts
- P317:18Anthony Mantha Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: nonePIT 4 – 1 MIN · PIT >99% → >99% +0PIT >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 61%
- ML PIT +145 / MIN -175
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.8 pts
- MIN: Elo 53.2%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- MIN -156
- PIT +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 2.9 – 3.6 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −3 | PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +22 Elo | MIN 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 60.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 58.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.6 | Goals scored | 2.823rd of 32 |
| 6th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.929th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+0.9 | Margin | −1.129th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3245.3% | Shot share | 50.5%14th of 32 |
| 5th of 3291.8% | Save percentage | 88.3%25th of 32 |
| 7th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 31 |
| 5th of 324–2 | Road vs home | 1–427th of 32 |
| 29th of 321486 | Opponent Elo | 150214th of 32 |
| 21st of 321490 | Elo rating | 148124th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–2 | 5–6 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 8–1 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 6–5 | 7–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 2–2 MIN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.