San Jose Sharks at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- William EklundGoals2
- Macklin CelebriniAssists2
- William EklundPoints3
Wild- Ryan HartmanGoals1
- Brock FaberAssists3
- Kirill KaprizovPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT3:47Macklin Celebrini Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: none6–5
- P317:42Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (9), Brock Faber (3)5–5
- P38:28Zeev Buium Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Hartman (2), Yakov Trenin (2)5–4
- P37:52Tyler Toffoli Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (9), William Eklund (5)5–3
- P34:28Ryan Hartman Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (8), Brock Faber (2)4–3
- P211:34Ryan Reaves Goal (2) Deflected, assists: Barclay Goodrow (1), Ty Dellandrea (4)4–2
- P211:15William Eklund Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Philipp Kurashev (1)3–2
- P117:34Marco Rossi Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (7)2–2
- P117:02Marcus Johansson Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Marco Rossi (6), Brock Faber (1)2–1
- P113:35Michael Misa Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Timothy Liljegren (1)2–0
- P15:28William Eklund Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (8), Dmitry Orlov (8)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P211:15William Eklund Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Philipp Kurashev (1)SJ 3 – 2 MIN · SJ 41% → 62% +21SJ 41% → 62%+21 pts
- P34:28Ryan Hartman Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (8), Brock Faber (2)SJ 4 – 3 MIN · MIN 10% → 29% +19MIN 10% → 29%+19 pts
- P37:52Tyler Toffoli Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (9), William Eklund (5)SJ 5 – 3 MIN · SJ 75% → 93% +18SJ 75% → 93%+18 pts
- P317:42Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (9), Brock Faber (3)SJ 5 – 5 MIN · MIN 4% → 53% +49MIN 4% → 53%+49 pts
- OT3:47Macklin Celebrini Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: noneSJ 6 – 5 MIN · SJ 48% → >99% +51SJ 48% → >99%+51 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 63%
- ML SJ +160 / MIN -190
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.7 pts
- MIN: Elo 65.7%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- MIN -170
- SJ +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.9 – 3.6 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1377 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | MIN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −4 | −5 | SJ: Yaroslav Askarov: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) · MIN: Jesper Wallstedt: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +113 Elo | MIN 65.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 63.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 63.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.629th of 32 |
| 32nd of 324.6 | Goals allowed | 3.727th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−1.8 | Margin | −1.129th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3242.3% | Shot share | 48.6%19th of 32 |
| 30th of 3286.6% | Save percentage | 89.9%17th of 32 |
| 24th of 321–3 | Road vs home | 1–225th of 32 |
| 14th of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 150911th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321377 | Elo rating | 148623rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 4–4 | 4–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–4 | 4–5 |
| Favorite | — | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 4–4 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders | 5–3 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–3 | 5–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 0–6 MIN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.