San Jose Sharks at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- William EklundGoals1
- Macklin CelebriniAssists1
- William EklundPoints1
Devils- Dougie HamiltonGoals2
- Nico HischierAssists3
- Dougie HamiltonPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:13Connor Brown Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Dougie Hamilton (1), Nico Hischier (7)1–3
- P29:08Dougie Hamilton Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (4), Nico Hischier (6)1–2
- P20:40Dougie Hamilton Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Dawson Mercer (5), Nico Hischier (5)1–1
- P12:25William Eklund Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (7)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:25William Eklund Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (7)SJ 1 – 0 NJ · SJ 25% → 38% +13SJ 25% → 38%+13 pts
- P20:40Dougie Hamilton Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Dawson Mercer (5), Nico Hischier (5)SJ 1 – 1 NJ · NJ 54% → 71% +17NJ 54% → 71%+17 pts
- P29:08Dougie Hamilton Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (4), Nico Hischier (6)SJ 1 – 2 NJ · NJ 69% → 84% +15NJ 69% → 84%+15 pts
- P319:13Connor Brown Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Dougie Hamilton (1), Nico Hischier (7)SJ 1 – 3 NJ · NJ >99% → >99% +0NJ >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 88.6% of 44 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 76%
- ML SJ +290 / NJ -380
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 76%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- NJ: Elo 75.9%, market 75.5%
- Fair odds
- NJ -309
- SJ +309 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.5 – 4.0 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1378 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | SJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −6 | −4 | SJ: Yaroslav Askarov: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) · NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +199 Elo | NJ 75.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 75.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 75.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 75.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 4.03rd of 32 |
| 32nd of 324.9 | Goals allowed | 2.68th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−1.7 | Margin | +1.42nd of 32 |
| 32nd of 3242.9% | Shot share | 52.0%10th of 32 |
| 30th of 3285.8% | Save percentage | 91.1%9th of 32 |
| 20th of 321–2 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 32 |
| 14th of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 15262nd of 32 |
| 32nd of 321378 | Elo rating | 151113th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 4–3 | 5–2 |
| Last 10 | 4–3 | 5–2 |
| Favorite | — | 2–1 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 5–2 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–2 | 4–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 3–1 NJ in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 4.