Minnesota Wild at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Matt BoldyGoals1
- Joel Eriksson EkAssists1
- Matt BoldyPoints1
Devils- Paul CotterGoals1
- Dawson MercerAssists2
- Dawson MercerPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:43Jesper Bratt Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonas Siegenthaler (1)1–4
- P310:37Matt Boldy Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (5), Zeev Buium (5)1–3
- P34:53Arseny Gritsyuk Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Timo Meier (4)0–3
- P26:08Brenden Dillon Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Dawson Mercer (4), Simon Nemec (4)0–2
- P116:21Paul Cotter Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Brown (1), Dawson Mercer (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:21Paul Cotter Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Brown (1), Dawson Mercer (3)MIN 0 – 1 NJ · NJ 53% → 69% +16NJ 53% → 69%+16 pts
- P26:08Brenden Dillon Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Dawson Mercer (4), Simon Nemec (4)MIN 0 – 2 NJ · NJ 71% → 85% +14NJ 71% → 85%+14 pts
- P34:53Arseny Gritsyuk Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Timo Meier (4)MIN 0 – 3 NJ · NJ 93% → 99% +5NJ 93% → 99%+5 pts
- P310:37Matt Boldy Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (5), Zeev Buium (5)MIN 1 – 3 NJ · MIN <1% → 3% +3MIN <1% → 3%+3 pts
- P318:43Jesper Bratt Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonas Siegenthaler (1)MIN 1 – 4 NJ · NJ >99% → >99% +0NJ >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 53%
- ML MIN +105 / NJ -125
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- NJ: Elo 52.4%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- NJ -114
- MIN +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 2.7 – 2.8 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | NJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +1 | MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · NJ: Nico Daws: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +17 Elo | NJ 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 50.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 322.9 | Goals scored | 4.02nd of 32 |
| 20th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 2.812th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.4 | Margin | +1.25th of 32 |
| 17th of 3249.4% | Shot share | 51.8%10th of 32 |
| 13th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 89.9%15th of 32 |
| 18th of 322–3 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 32 |
| 10th of 321509 | Opponent Elo | 15332nd of 32 |
| 19th of 321496 | Elo rating | 150714th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 4–3 | 4–2 |
| Last 10 | 4–3 | 4–2 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–3 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–3 | 4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 0–4 NJ in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.