Utah Mammoth at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mammoth- Logan CooleyGoals2
- John MarinoAssists2
- Logan CooleyPoints3
Wild- Marcus JohanssonGoals2
- Kirill KaprizovAssists1
- Marcus JohanssonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:54John Marino Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ian Cole (3)6–2
- P315:13Nick Schmaltz Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: none5–2
- P313:37JJ Peterka Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Logan Cooley (3), Mikhail Sergachev (6)4–2
- P215:43Marcus Johansson Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Vincent Hinostroza (1), Marco Rossi (5)3–2
- P115:39Marcus Johansson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Zeev Buium (6), Kirill Kaprizov (6)3–1
- P14:58Nick Schmaltz Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Nate Schmidt (1), John Marino (4)3–0
- P13:29Logan Cooley Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Guenther (6), Mikhail Sergachev (5)2–0
- P10:56Logan Cooley Goal (6) Batted, assists: John Marino (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:56Logan Cooley Goal (6) Batted, assists: John Marino (3)UTA 1 – 0 MIN · UTA 49% → 63% +14UTA 49% → 63%+14 pts
- P13:29Logan Cooley Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Guenther (6), Mikhail Sergachev (5)UTA 2 – 0 MIN · UTA 64% → 77% +13UTA 64% → 77%+13 pts
- P115:39Marcus Johansson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Zeev Buium (6), Kirill Kaprizov (6)UTA 3 – 1 MIN · MIN 11% → 20% +10MIN 11% → 20%+10 pts
- P215:43Marcus Johansson Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Vincent Hinostroza (1), Marco Rossi (5)UTA 3 – 2 MIN · MIN 13% → 29% +16MIN 13% → 29%+16 pts
- P313:37JJ Peterka Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Logan Cooley (3), Mikhail Sergachev (6)UTA 4 – 2 MIN · UTA 87% → 99% +12UTA 87% → 99%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 51%
- ML UTA -105 / MIN -115
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- MIN: Elo 52.0%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -104
- UTA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTA 2.7 – 2.8 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTA | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | 0 | UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +14 Elo | MIN 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 52.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTA | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 2.628th of 32 |
| 7th of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 3.421st of 32 |
| 7th of 32+1.0 | Margin | −0.827th of 32 |
| 4th of 3255.4% | Shot share | 49.1%20th of 32 |
| 17th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 90.3%14th of 32 |
| 14th of 322–2 | Road vs home | 1–117th of 32 |
| 30th of 321479 | Opponent Elo | 150910th of 32 |
| 14th of 321509 | Elo rating | 149221st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTA |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–3 | 4–4 |
| Last 10 | 5–3 | 4–4 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 3–0 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders | 3–5 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–5 | 4–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTA 3–1 MIN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.
