Winnipeg Jets at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Nino NiederreiterGoals1
- Mark ScheifeleAssists2
- Mark ScheifelePoints2
Wild- Brock FaberGoals1
- Brock FaberAssists1
- Brock FaberPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT0:46Kyle Connor Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (7), Josh Morrissey (8)4–3
- P311:35Nino Niederreiter Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Gustav Nyquist (4), Morgan Barron (3)3–3
- P33:48Marcus Johansson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Faber (4), Marco Rossi (8)2–3
- P213:12Brock Faber Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Marco Rossi (7), Vincent Hinostroza (2)2–2
- P26:03Kirill Kaprizov Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Jared Spurgeon (1), Matt Boldy (7)2–1
- P112:38Vladislav Namestnikov Goal (4) Deflected, assists: Neal Pionk (2), Logan Stanley (4)2–0
- P112:16Gabriel Vilardi Goal (2) Batted, assists: Mark Scheifele (6), Logan Stanley (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:16Gabriel Vilardi Goal (2) Batted, assists: Mark Scheifele (6), Logan Stanley (3)WPG 1 – 0 MIN · WPG 49% → 65% +16WPG 49% → 65%+16 pts
- P213:12Brock Faber Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Marco Rossi (7), Vincent Hinostroza (2)WPG 2 – 2 MIN · MIN 30% → 51% +21MIN 30% → 51%+21 pts
- P33:48Marcus Johansson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Faber (4), Marco Rossi (8)WPG 2 – 3 MIN · MIN 51% → 76% +26MIN 51% → 76%+26 pts
- P311:35Nino Niederreiter Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Gustav Nyquist (4), Morgan Barron (3)WPG 3 – 3 MIN · WPG 16% → 50% +33WPG 16% → 50%+33 pts
- OT0:46Kyle Connor Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (7), Josh Morrissey (8)WPG 4 – 3 MIN · WPG 50% → 91% +42WPG 50% → 91%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 51%
- ML WPG -105 / MIN -115
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 43%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.9 pts
- MIN: Elo 43.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -104
- WPG +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 2.7 – 2.8 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1560 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −2 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +48 Elo | WPG 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 51.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.827th of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.4 | Goals allowed | 3.930th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+0.9 | Margin | −1.129th of 32 |
| 28th of 3246.1% | Shot share | 49.4%18th of 32 |
| 1st of 3292.8% | Save percentage | 88.8%24th of 32 |
| 1st of 323–0 | Road vs home | 1–326th of 32 |
| 28th of 321488 | Opponent Elo | 149619th of 32 |
| 1st of 321560 | Elo rating | 148324th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 4–5 | 4–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–5 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | — | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders | 4–5 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 7–0 MIN in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.