Utah Mammoth at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mammoth- Michael CarconeGoals1
- Nate SchmidtAssists1
- Mikhail SergachevPoints1
Jets- Mark ScheifeleGoals1
- Josh MorrisseyAssists2
- Josh MorrisseyPoints2
Scoring summary
- P314:24Dylan Guenther Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Logan Cooley (4), JJ Peterka (6)3–2
- P215:09Mark Scheifele Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (7), Gabriel Vilardi (6)2–2
- P211:07Michael Carcone Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Kailer Yamamoto (1), Nate Schmidt (2)2–1
- P210:03Mikhail Sergachev Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (9)1–1
- P20:45Dylan DeMelo Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (6), Kyle Connor (7)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:45Dylan DeMelo Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (6), Kyle Connor (7)UTA 0 – 1 WPG · WPG 56% → 73% +17WPG 56% → 73%+17 pts
- P210:03Mikhail Sergachev Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (9)UTA 1 – 1 WPG · UTA 25% → 44% +19UTA 25% → 44%+19 pts
- P211:07Michael Carcone Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Kailer Yamamoto (1), Nate Schmidt (2)UTA 2 – 1 WPG · UTA 44% → 65% +21UTA 44% → 65%+21 pts
- P215:09Mark Scheifele Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (7), Gabriel Vilardi (6)UTA 2 – 2 WPG · WPG 33% → 55% +22WPG 33% → 55%+22 pts
- P314:24Dylan Guenther Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Logan Cooley (4), JJ Peterka (6)UTA 3 – 2 WPG · UTA 48% → 87% +40UTA 48% → 87%+40 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 58%
- ML UTA +130 / WPG -150
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +10.4 pts
- WPG: Elo 68.3%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- WPG -138
- UTA +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTA 2.5 – 3.0 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTA | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1563 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | UTA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −15 | +5 | UTA: Vitek Vanecek: team allows 0.38 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +134 Elo | WPG 68.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 62.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 64.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTA | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 323.8 | Goals scored | 3.58th of 32 |
| 4th of 322.4 | Goals allowed | 2.43rd of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+1.3 | Margin | +1.13rd of 32 |
| 4th of 3255.2% | Shot share | 45.8%27th of 32 |
| 13th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 93.0%1st of 32 |
| 11th of 323–2 | Road vs home | 3–212th of 32 |
| 31st of 321479 | Opponent Elo | 148330th of 32 |
| 13th of 321514 | Elo rating | 15631st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTA |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–3 | 4–4 |
| Last 10 | 6–3 | 4–4 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 4–4 |
| Underdog | 4–0 | — |
| Overs–unders | 4–5 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5 | 4–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTA 2–2 WPG in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.
