Pittsburgh Penguins at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Blake LizotteGoals1
- Evgeni MalkinAssists1
- Sidney CrosbyPoints1
Jets- Kyle ConnorGoals2
- Mark ScheifeleAssists2
- Kyle ConnorPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:39Kyle Connor Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (8), Mark Scheifele (11)2–5
- P310:27Blake Lizotte Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Noel Acciari (3), Connor Dewar (2)2–4
- P219:48Sidney Crosby Goal (9) Deflected, assists: Erik Karlsson (10), Evgeni Malkin (15)1–4
- P212:13Kyle Connor Goal (7) Backhand, assists: none0–4
- P21:17Vladislav Namestnikov Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Jonathan Toews (5), Alex Iafallo (3)0–3
- P12:43Brad Lambert Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Parker Ford (1), Cole Koepke (2)0–2
- P10:15Gabriel Vilardi Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (10), Mark Scheifele (10)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:15Gabriel Vilardi Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (10), Mark Scheifele (10)PIT 0 – 1 WPG · WPG 60% → 73% +13WPG 60% → 73%+13 pts
- P12:43Brad Lambert Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Parker Ford (1), Cole Koepke (2)PIT 0 – 2 WPG · WPG 73% → 84% +11WPG 73% → 84%+11 pts
- P21:17Vladislav Namestnikov Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Jonathan Toews (5), Alex Iafallo (3)PIT 0 – 3 WPG · WPG 87% → 94% +7WPG 87% → 94%+7 pts
- P212:13Kyle Connor Goal (7) Backhand, assists: nonePIT 0 – 4 WPG · WPG 96% → 99% +3WPG 96% → 99%+3 pts
- P310:27Blake Lizotte Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Noel Acciari (3), Connor Dewar (2)PIT 2 – 4 WPG · PIT <1% → 3% +2PIT <1% → 3%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 60%
- ML PIT +140 / WPG -165
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- WPG: Elo 61.8%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- WPG -149
- PIT +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.0 – 3.5 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1564 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −17 | PIT: Arturs Silovs: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈21 weighted starts) · WPG: Eric Comrie: team allows 0.42 more goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +83 Elo | WPG 61.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 62.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 62.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.7 | Goals scored | 3.67th of 32 |
| 5th of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 2.54th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+1.1 | Margin | +1.11st of 32 |
| 28th of 3246.2% | Shot share | 46.3%27th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3292.1% | Save percentage | 92.2%1st of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 32 |
| 4th of 325–2 | Road vs home | 4–317th of 32 |
| 29th of 321487 | Opponent Elo | 148032nd of 32 |
| 20th of 321495 | Elo rating | 15641st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 10–2 | 5–6 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 5–6 |
| Underdog | 9–1 | — |
| Overs–unders | 6–6 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 1–3 WPG in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.