Chicago Blackhawks at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Andre BurakovskyGoals1
- Connor BedardAssists2
- Connor BedardPoints2
Jets- Gabriel VilardiGoals2
- Mark ScheifeleAssists2
- Gabriel VilardiPoints3
Scoring summary
- P317:19Kyle Connor Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Mark Scheifele (9), Gabriel Vilardi (7)3–6
- P315:03Andre Burakovsky Goal (3) Between Legs, assists: Connor Bedard (8), Artyom Levshunov (4)3–5
- P313:02Alex Vlasic Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (7), Connor Murphy (2)2–5
- P310:12Josh Morrissey Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Dylan DeMelo (6), Jonathan Toews (4)1–5
- P211:19Gabriel Vilardi Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan DeMelo (5), Josh Morrissey (9)1–4
- P21:54Mark Scheifele Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (9)1–3
- P116:56Gabriel Vilardi Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (8), Kyle Connor (8)1–2
- P18:57Teuvo Teravainen Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Connor Murphy (1)1–1
- P11:42Vladislav Namestnikov Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Gustav Nyquist (5), Nino Niederreiter (5)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:42Vladislav Namestnikov Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Gustav Nyquist (5), Nino Niederreiter (5)CHI 0 – 1 WPG · WPG 63% → 76% +13WPG 63% → 76%+13 pts
- P18:57Teuvo Teravainen Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Connor Murphy (1)CHI 1 – 1 WPG · CHI 24% → 38% +14CHI 24% → 38%+14 pts
- P116:56Gabriel Vilardi Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (8), Kyle Connor (8)CHI 1 – 2 WPG · WPG 61% → 76% +15WPG 61% → 76%+15 pts
- P21:54Mark Scheifele Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (9)CHI 1 – 3 WPG · WPG 77% → 88% +12WPG 77% → 88%+12 pts
- P211:19Gabriel Vilardi Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan DeMelo (5), Josh Morrissey (9)CHI 1 – 4 WPG · WPG 90% → 97% +6WPG 90% → 97%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 63%
- ML CHI +160 / WPG -190
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.4 pts
- WPG: Elo 71.4%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- WPG -170
- CHI +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.4 – 3.1 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1432 | 1562 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | +3 | CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +159 Elo | WPG 71.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 70.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 70.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.413th of 32 |
| 5th of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 2.54th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.7 | Margin | +0.96th of 32 |
| 29th of 3245.5% | Shot share | 45.3%31st of 32 |
| 3rd of 3291.8% | Save percentage | 92.6%1st of 32 |
| 13th of 322–2 | Road vs home | 3–318th of 32 |
| 12th of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 148630th of 32 |
| 31st of 321432 | Elo rating | 15621st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–1 | 4–6 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | — | 4–6 |
| Underdog | 9–1 | — |
| Overs–unders | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 1–6 WPG in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.