Ottawa Senators at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Tim StutzleGoals1
- Drake BathersonAssists2
- Tim StutzlePoints2
Blackhawks- Connor BedardGoals3
- Andre BurakovskyAssists2
- Connor BedardPoints4
Scoring summary
- P312:44Frank Nazar Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Foligno (4)3–7
- P38:24Ryan Donato Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (6), Andre Burakovsky (4)3–6
- P33:46Connor Bedard Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Greene (1)3–5
- P28:31Tim Stützle Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikolas Matinpalo (1), Drake Batherson (8)3–4
- P27:09Michael Amadio Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Artem Zub (6)2–4
- P24:58Jake Sanderson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (7), Tim Stützle (7)1–4
- P22:58Connor Bedard Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Grzelcyk (2), Artyom Levshunov (3)0–4
- P117:53Connor Bedard Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Andre Burakovsky (3), Frank Nazar (6)0–3
- P112:06Louis Crevier Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Dickinson (2), Alex Vlasic (3)0–2
- P16:47Colton Dach Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Louis Crevier (2), Nick Foligno (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:47Colton Dach Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Louis Crevier (2), Nick Foligno (3)OTT 0 – 1 CHI · CHI 43% → 59% +15CHI 43% → 59%+15 pts
- P112:06Louis Crevier Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Dickinson (2), Alex Vlasic (3)OTT 0 – 2 CHI · CHI 60% → 74% +15CHI 60% → 74%+15 pts
- P117:53Connor Bedard Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Andre Burakovsky (3), Frank Nazar (6)OTT 0 – 3 CHI · CHI 76% → 88% +11CHI 76% → 88%+11 pts
- P28:31Tim Stützle Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikolas Matinpalo (1), Drake Batherson (8)OTT 3 – 4 CHI · OTT 19% → 35% +16OTT 19% → 35%+16 pts
- P33:46Connor Bedard Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Greene (1)OTT 3 – 5 CHI · CHI 73% → 90% +18CHI 73% → 90%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 57%
- ML OTT -145 / CHI +125
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.8 pts
- OTT: Elo 50.3%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- OTT -133
- CHI +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 3.0 – 2.5 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1427 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | OTT on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +10 | OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.25 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +2 Elo | OTT 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 52.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 323.8 | Goals scored | 2.925th of 32 |
| 29th of 323.7 | Goals allowed | 2.65th of 32 |
| 15th of 32+0.1 | Margin | +0.311th of 32 |
| 5th of 3254.3% | Shot share | 44.8%31st of 32 |
| 31st of 3286.2% | Save percentage | 92.2%2nd of 32 |
| 13th of 322–2 | Road vs home | 2–323rd of 32 |
| 18th of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 150513th of 32 |
| 15th of 321505 | Elo rating | 142731st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 4–6 | 8–1 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–1 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | — |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 8–1 |
| Overs–unders | 7–3 | 2–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 2–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 2–2 CHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.