Los Angeles Kings at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Joel ArmiaGoals1
- Joel EdmundsonAssists1
- Joel ArmiaPoints1
Blackhawks- Connor BedardGoals1
- Ilya MikheyevAssists1
- Connor BedardPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:52Joel Armia Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (8), Joel Edmundson (3)3–1
- P24:54Kevin Fiala Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandt Clarke (4)2–1
- P23:30Alex Laferriere Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Corey Perry (1), Phillip Danault (3)1–1
- P17:04Connor Bedard Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Ilya Mikheyev (2)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:04Connor Bedard Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Ilya Mikheyev (2)LA 0 – 1 CHI · CHI 42% → 58% +15CHI 42% → 58%+15 pts
- P23:30Alex Laferriere Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Corey Perry (1), Phillip Danault (3)LA 1 – 1 CHI · LA 38% → 56% +18LA 38% → 56%+18 pts
- P24:54Kevin Fiala Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandt Clarke (4)LA 2 – 1 CHI · LA 56% → 74% +17LA 56% → 74%+17 pts
- P318:52Joel Armia Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (8), Joel Edmundson (3)LA 3 – 1 CHI · LA >99% → >99% +0LA >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- LA 58%
- ML LA -155 / CHI +130
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.2 pts
- LA: Elo 53.1%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- LA -140
- CHI +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 3.5 – 3.0 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1430 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | LA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −15 | −13 | LA: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.37 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.32 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +22 Elo | LA 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 57.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 56.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.116th of 32 |
| 25th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 2.56th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.7 | Margin | +0.69th of 32 |
| 12th of 3251.8% | Shot share | 44.1%31st of 32 |
| 25th of 3288.4% | Save percentage | 92.3%3rd of 32 |
| 12th of 323–3 | Road vs home | 2–215th of 32 |
| 4th of 321519 | Opponent Elo | 150313th of 32 |
| 11th of 321519 | Elo rating | 143031st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LA |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–4 | 8–0 |
| Last 10 | 5–4 | 8–0 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | — |
| Underdog | 5–1 | 8–0 |
| Overs–unders | 4–5 | 2–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5 | 2–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 4–2 CHI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.