Boston Bruins at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Viktor ArvidssonGoals1
- Tanner JeannotAssists1
- Viktor ArvidssonPoints1
Senators- Drake BathersonGoals2
- Jake SandersonAssists3
- Drake BathersonPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:50Viktor Arvidsson Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Fraser Minten (1), Tanner Jeannot (2)2–7
- P313:04Fabian Zetterlund Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Thomas Chabot (4), David Perron (4)1–7
- P312:22Nick Cousins Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (6), Nick Jensen (3)1–6
- P39:33Tim Stützle Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Jake Sanderson (8), Dylan Cozens (4)1–5
- P30:13Tim Stützle Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Sanderson (7), Drake Batherson (6)1–4
- P214:44Drake Batherson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Fabian Zetterlund (2), Lars Eller (3)1–3
- P21:08Claude Giroux Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Michael Amadio (1), Shane Pinto (2)1–2
- P110:25Drake Batherson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Ridly Greig (3), Jake Sanderson (6)1–1
- P13:06Morgan Geekie Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:06Morgan Geekie Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: noneBOS 1 – 0 OTT · BOS 40% → 55% +15BOS 40% → 55%+15 pts
- P110:25Drake Batherson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Ridly Greig (3), Jake Sanderson (6)BOS 1 – 1 OTT · OTT 43% → 59% +16OTT 43% → 59%+16 pts
- P21:08Claude Giroux Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Michael Amadio (1), Shane Pinto (2)BOS 1 – 2 OTT · OTT 58% → 74% +16OTT 58% → 74%+16 pts
- P214:44Drake Batherson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Fabian Zetterlund (2), Lars Eller (3)BOS 1 – 3 OTT · OTT 77% → 90% +14OTT 77% → 90%+14 pts
- P30:13Tim Stützle Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Sanderson (7), Drake Batherson (6)BOS 1 – 4 OTT · OTT 92% → 98% +6OTT 92% → 98%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 60%
- ML BOS +140 / OTT -165
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- OTT: Elo 59.9%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- OTT -149
- BOS +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 2.5 – 3.0 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +5 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · OTT: Leevi Merilainen: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +69 Elo | OTT 59.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 62.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 61.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.48th of 32 |
| 24th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.929th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.426th of 32 |
| 21st of 3248.4% | Shot share | 55.2%2nd of 32 |
| 25th of 3288.7% | Save percentage | 85.4%31st of 32 |
| 25th of 321–3 | Road vs home | 2–322nd of 32 |
| 6th of 321513 | Opponent Elo | 150115th of 32 |
| 26th of 321471 | Elo rating | 150116th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–3 | 3–6 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–6 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 0–5 |
| Underdog | 6–1 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 5–5 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 3–4 OTT in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.