Colorado Avalanche at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Artturi LehkonenGoals2
- Nathan MacKinnonAssists2
- Artturi LehkonenPoints2
Bruins- Viktor ArvidssonGoals1
- Mason LohreiAssists3
- Mason LohreiPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:40Artturi Lehkonen Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (7), Valeri Nichushkin (2)2–3
- P219:55Morgan Geekie Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (8), Mason Lohrei (5)1–3
- P114:55Michael Eyssimont Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Tanner Jeannot (1), Mason Lohrei (4)1–2
- P114:16Viktor Arvidsson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason Lohrei (3), Casey Mittelstadt (3)1–1
- P14:26Artturi Lehkonen Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (6), Cale Makar (7)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:26Artturi Lehkonen Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (6), Cale Makar (7)COL 1 – 0 BOS · COL 65% → 77% +13COL 65% → 77%+13 pts
- P114:16Viktor Arvidsson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason Lohrei (3), Casey Mittelstadt (3)COL 1 – 1 BOS · BOS 22% → 37% +14BOS 22% → 37%+14 pts
- P114:55Michael Eyssimont Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Tanner Jeannot (1), Mason Lohrei (4)COL 1 – 2 BOS · BOS 37% → 53% +17BOS 37% → 53%+17 pts
- P219:55Morgan Geekie Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (8), Mason Lohrei (5)COL 1 – 3 BOS · BOS 66% → 85% +19BOS 66% → 85%+19 pts
- P319:40Artturi Lehkonen Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (7), Valeri Nichushkin (2)COL 2 – 3 BOS · COL 0% → <1% +0COL 0% → <1%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- COL 65%
- ML COL -210 / BOS +175
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.0 pts
- COL: Elo 58.1%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- COL -186
- BOS +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.7 – 2.8 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1556 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −1 | COL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +57 Elo | COL 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 63.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 62.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.213th of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.4 | Goals allowed | 3.726th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+1.1 | Margin | −0.422nd of 32 |
| 1st of 3257.3% | Shot share | 49.6%17th of 32 |
| 7th of 3291.9% | Save percentage | 88.0%29th of 32 |
| 6th of 323–1 | Road vs home | 2–323rd of 32 |
| 11th of 321508 | Opponent Elo | 15108th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321556 | Elo rating | 146827th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 4–4 | 6–3 |
| Last 10 | 4–4 | 6–3 |
| Favorite | 4–4 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | — | 5–1 |
| Overs–unders | 3–5 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–5 | 5–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 2–3 BOS in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.