Buffalo Sabres at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Jason ZuckerGoals1
- Jason ZuckerAssists1
- Jason ZuckerPoints2
Penguins- Kevin HayesGoals1
- Ryan SheaAssists2
- Ryan SheaPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:02Connor Dewar Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Danton Heinen (1), Ryan Shea (8)2–4
- P315:42Jack Quinn Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Zucker (7), Mattias Samuelsson (7)2–3
- P312:34Kevin Hayes Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Erik Karlsson (13), Parker Wotherspoon (6)1–3
- P37:51Bryan Rust Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Shea (7)1–2
- P37:20Jason Zucker Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Jack Quinn (7), Ryan McLeod (9)1–1
- P117:09Mathew Dumba Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:09Mathew Dumba Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: noneBUF 0 – 1 PIT · PIT 51% → 68% +17PIT 51% → 68%+17 pts
- P37:20Jason Zucker Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Jack Quinn (7), Ryan McLeod (9)BUF 1 – 1 PIT · BUF 21% → 50% +29BUF 21% → 50%+29 pts
- P37:51Bryan Rust Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Shea (7)BUF 1 – 2 PIT · PIT 50% → 79% +29PIT 50% → 79%+29 pts
- P312:34Kevin Hayes Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Erik Karlsson (13), Parker Wotherspoon (6)BUF 1 – 3 PIT · PIT 85% → 98% +13PIT 85% → 98%+13 pts
- P315:42Jack Quinn Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Zucker (7), Mattias Samuelsson (7)BUF 2 – 3 PIT · BUF <1% → 9% +8BUF <1% → 9%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Penguins 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 51%
- ML BUF -105 / PIT -115
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.1 pts
- PIT: Elo 56.2%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- PIT -104
- BUF +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 3.2 – 3.3 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | +1 | BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +43 Elo | PIT 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 56.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.021st of 32 |
| 26th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 2.86th of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.39th of 32 |
| 28th of 3246.9% | Shot share | 48.9%19th of 32 |
| 15th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 90.9%6th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321–7 | Road vs home | 4–526th of 32 |
| 1st of 321510 | Opponent Elo | 149326th of 32 |
| 26th of 321478 | Elo rating | 148224th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 10–12 | 15–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–5 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 8–7 | 13–2 |
| Overs–unders | 13–9 | 9–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 3–3 PIT in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.