Chicago Blackhawks at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Tyler BertuzziGoals2
- Connor BedardAssists2
- Tyler BertuzziPoints2
Scoring summary
- P316:22
Jacob Bryson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Beck Malenstyn (2), Jordan Greenway (2)3–9 - P37:07Jack Quinn Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Bowen Byram (7), Jason Zucker (5)3–8
- P31:56Tage Thompson Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Tuch (13)3–7
- P30:24Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Connor Bedard (18), Frank Nazar (10)3–6
- P217:31Josh Doan Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (15), Alex Tuch (12)2–6
- P214:45Alex Vlasic Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Greene (4), Sam Rinzel (5)2–5
- P25:50Mattias Samuelsson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Isak Rosen (4), Jacob Bryson (2)1–5
- P25:42Ryan McLeod Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Zucker (4), Conor Timmins (5)1–4
- P118:12Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Sam Rinzel (4), Connor Bedard (17)1–3
- P117:33Bowen Byram Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Alex Tuch (11), Ryan McLeod (6)0–3
- P115:19Jason Zucker Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Quinn (6), Rasmus Dahlin (14)0–2
- P113:57Josh Doan Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (9), Alex Tuch (10)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:57Josh Doan Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (9), Alex Tuch (10)CHI 0 – 1 BUF · BUF 60% → 75% +15BUF 60% → 75%+15 pts
- P115:19Jason Zucker Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Quinn (6), Rasmus Dahlin (14)CHI 0 – 2 BUF · BUF 75% → 86% +11BUF 75% → 86%+11 pts
- P117:33Bowen Byram Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Alex Tuch (11), Ryan McLeod (6)CHI 0 – 3 BUF · BUF 87% → 94% +7BUF 87% → 94%+7 pts
- P118:12Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Sam Rinzel (4), Connor Bedard (17)CHI 1 – 3 BUF · CHI 6% → 13% +7CHI 6% → 13%+7 pts
- P25:42Ryan McLeod Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Zucker (4), Conor Timmins (5)CHI 1 – 4 BUF · BUF 88% → 95% +7BUF 88% → 95%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sabres 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 62%
- ML CHI +150 / BUF -180
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- BUF: Elo 62.3%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- BUF -161
- CHI +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.9 – 3.6 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1448 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −9 | −7 | CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.23 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +87 Elo | BUF 62.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 67.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 66.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.924th of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 3.527th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+0.7 | Margin | −0.628th of 32 |
| 31st of 3244.7% | Shot share | 46.7%29th of 32 |
| 1st of 3291.9% | Save percentage | 90.0%15th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Road vs home | 6–621st of 32 |
| 17th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 15111st of 32 |
| 30th of 321448 | Elo rating | 146827th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 17–3 | 8–12 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | — | 1–5 |
| Underdog | 17–3 | 7–7 |
| Overs–unders | 7–13 | 12–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 0–4 BUF in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.