Seattle Kraken at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Shane WrightGoals1
- Brandon MontourAssists2
- Brandon MontourPoints2
Blackhawks- Teuvo TeravainenGoals1
- Teuvo TeravainenAssists1
- Teuvo TeravainenPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:42Jaden Schwartz Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Montour (8), Mason Marchment (8)3–2
- P37:13Shane Wright Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryker Evans (2), Berkly Catton (4)2–2
- P35:09Tye Kartye Goal (2) Deflected, assists: Oscar Fisker Molgaard (1), Brandon Montour (7)1–2
- P210:07Teuvo Teravainen Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (7), Artyom Levshunov (11)0–2
- P20:43Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (10), Frank Nazar (9)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:43Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (10), Frank Nazar (9)SEA 0 – 1 CHI · CHI 51% → 68% +17CHI 51% → 68%+17 pts
- P210:07Teuvo Teravainen Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (7), Artyom Levshunov (11)SEA 0 – 2 CHI · CHI 70% → 85% +15CHI 70% → 85%+15 pts
- P35:09Tye Kartye Goal (2) Deflected, assists: Oscar Fisker Molgaard (1), Brandon Montour (7)SEA 1 – 2 CHI · SEA 7% → 23% +16SEA 7% → 23%+16 pts
- P37:13Shane Wright Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryker Evans (2), Berkly Catton (4)SEA 2 – 2 CHI · SEA 21% → 49% +28SEA 21% → 49%+28 pts
- P317:42Jaden Schwartz Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Montour (8), Mason Marchment (8)SEA 3 – 2 CHI · SEA 50% → 97% +47SEA 50% → 97%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blackhawks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- CHI 51%
- ML SEA -105 / CHI -115
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- CHI: Elo 52.0%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- CHI -104
- SEA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.7 – 2.8 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1450 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +10 | SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.25 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +14 Elo | CHI 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 54.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.45th of 32 |
| 8th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 2.63rd of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.82nd of 32 |
| 28th of 3247.1% | Shot share | 44.5%31st of 32 |
| 8th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 92.1%2nd of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 25th of 323–6 | Road vs home | 5–414th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 150116th of 32 |
| 26th of 321476 | Elo rating | 145030th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 14–5 | 16–3 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 3–2 | — |
| Underdog | 11–3 | 16–3 |
| Overs–unders | 9–10 | 7–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 5–2 CHI in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.