Chicago Blackhawks at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Andre BurakovskyGoals1
- Connor BedardAssists1
- Andre BurakovskyPoints1
Kraken- Matty BeniersGoals1
- Matty BeniersAssists1
- Jordan EberlePoints2
Scoring summary
- P316:05Jordan Eberle Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Matty Beniers (6)1–3
- P311:33Andre Burakovsky Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (10)1–2
- P27:36Matty Beniers Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (5), Eeli Tolvanen (4)0–2
- P22:57Jamie Oleksiak Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P22:57Jamie Oleksiak Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: noneCHI 0 – 1 SEA · SEA 57% → 74% +17SEA 57% → 74%+17 pts
- P27:36Matty Beniers Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (5), Eeli Tolvanen (4)CHI 0 – 2 SEA · SEA 75% → 88% +13SEA 75% → 88%+13 pts
- P311:33Andre Burakovsky Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (10)CHI 1 – 2 SEA · CHI 2% → 15% +12CHI 2% → 15%+12 pts
- P316:05Jordan Eberle Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Matty Beniers (6)CHI 1 – 3 SEA · SEA 93% → >99% +7SEA 93% → >99%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kraken 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 59%
- ML CHI +135 / SEA -155
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.5 pts
- SEA: Elo 64.3%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- SEA -143
- CHI +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.5 – 3.0 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1428 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −13 | +4 | CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.33 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +102 Elo | SEA 64.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 63.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 63.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.727th of 32 |
| 13th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.910th of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.3 | Margin | −0.221st of 32 |
| 31st of 3245.6% | Shot share | 45.7%30th of 32 |
| 8th of 3290.7% | Save percentage | 90.4%11th of 32 |
| 15th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 20th of 322–4 | Road vs home | 3–215th of 32 |
| 4th of 321513 | Opponent Elo | 15125th of 32 |
| 31st of 321428 | Elo rating | 147924th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 10–2 | 9–2 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | — | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 10–2 | 8–2 |
| Overs–unders | 4–8 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 2–4 SEA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.