Chicago Blackhawks at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Andre BurakovskyGoals1
- Andre BurakovskyAssists1
- Andre BurakovskyPoints2
Oilers- Leon DraisaitlGoals1
- Connor McDavidAssists3
- Connor McDavidPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT2:43Evan Bouchard Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (7), Connor McDavid (14)2–3
- P33:19Andre Burakovsky Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Artyom Levshunov (5), Ryan Greene (2)2–2
- P217:17Jack Roslovic Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Connor McDavid (13), Evan Bouchard (7)1–2
- P28:32Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Connor Bedard (9), Andre Burakovsky (5)1–1
- P20:54Leon Draisaitl Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (8), Connor McDavid (12)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:54Leon Draisaitl Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (8), Connor McDavid (12)CHI 0 – 1 EDM · EDM 68% → 82% +14EDM 68% → 82%+14 pts
- P28:32Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Connor Bedard (9), Andre Burakovsky (5)CHI 1 – 1 EDM · CHI 18% → 34% +16CHI 18% → 34%+16 pts
- P217:17Jack Roslovic Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Connor McDavid (13), Evan Bouchard (7)CHI 1 – 2 EDM · EDM 64% → 83% +19EDM 64% → 83%+19 pts
- P33:19Andre Burakovsky Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Artyom Levshunov (5), Ryan Greene (2)CHI 2 – 2 EDM · CHI 16% → 38% +22CHI 16% → 38%+22 pts
- OT2:43Evan Bouchard Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (7), Connor McDavid (14)CHI 2 – 3 EDM · EDM 54% → 98% +43EDM 54% → 98%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 72%
- ML CHI +240 / EDM -300
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.4 pts
- EDM: Elo 69.5%, market 71.8%
- Fair odds
- EDM -255
- CHI +255 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.6 – 3.9 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1430 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −2 | CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +143 Elo | EDM 69.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 73.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 72.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 71.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.218th of 32 |
| 11th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.320th of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.4 | Margin | −0.119th of 32 |
| 31st of 3245.2% | Shot share | 54.3%4th of 32 |
| 8th of 3290.8% | Save percentage | 88.1%28th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 32 |
| 17th of 322–3 | Road vs home | 3–214th of 32 |
| 6th of 321510 | Opponent Elo | 149520th of 32 |
| 31st of 321430 | Elo rating | 15444th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–2 | 3–9 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | — | 3–9 |
| Underdog | 9–2 | — |
| Overs–unders | 4–7 | 7–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 1–5 EDM in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.