Montreal Canadiens at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Cole CaufieldGoals2
- Oliver KapanenAssists2
- Cole CaufieldPoints2
Oilers- Vasily PodkolzinGoals1
- Connor McDavidAssists3
- Connor McDavidPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:51Vasily Podkolzin Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Darnell Nurse (4), Jake Walman (2)5–6
- P312:17Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Connor McDavid (10), Evan Bouchard (2)5–5
- P311:19Leon Draisaitl Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (9), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (4)5–4
- P32:10Alex Newhook Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Oliver Kapanen (2), Jayden Struble (2)5–3
- P218:49Cole Caufield Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (11), Alexandre Carrier (2)4–3
- P218:00Cole Caufield Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (4), Lane Hutson (7)3–3
- P216:57Josh Anderson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Brendan Gallagher (6), Jake Evans (1)2–3
- P213:28Andrew Mangiapane Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Darnell Nurse (3), Connor McDavid (8)1–3
- P210:37Adam Henrique Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Jake Walman (1), Mattias Ekholm (3)1–2
- P116:12David Tomasek Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Vasily Podkolzin (3), Noah Philp (1)1–1
- P17:28Alex Newhook Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (6), Oliver Kapanen (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P218:00Cole Caufield Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (4), Lane Hutson (7)MTL 3 – 3 EDM · MTL 19% → 40% +20MTL 19% → 40%+20 pts
- P218:49Cole Caufield Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (11), Alexandre Carrier (2)MTL 4 – 3 EDM · MTL 40% → 64% +24MTL 40% → 64%+24 pts
- P32:10Alex Newhook Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Oliver Kapanen (2), Jayden Struble (2)MTL 5 – 3 EDM · MTL 67% → 86% +20MTL 67% → 86%+20 pts
- P312:17Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Connor McDavid (10), Evan Bouchard (2)MTL 5 – 5 EDM · EDM 19% → 56% +37EDM 19% → 56%+37 pts
- P318:51Vasily Podkolzin Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Darnell Nurse (4), Jake Walman (2)MTL 5 – 6 EDM · EDM 52% → >99% +47EDM 52% → >99%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 67%
- ML MTL +190 / EDM -230
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- EDM: Elo 66.7%, market 66.9%
- Fair odds
- EDM -202
- MTL +202 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 2.3 – 3.2 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | MTL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −3 | 0 | MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · EDM: Calvin Pickard: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +120 Elo | EDM 66.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 67.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 67.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 66.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 2.627th of 32 |
| 11th of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 2.913th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.8 | Margin | −0.321st of 32 |
| 14th of 3250.0% | Shot share | 55.4%5th of 32 |
| 11th of 3291.0% | Save percentage | 89.9%17th of 32 |
| 5th of 323–1 | Road vs home | 1–115th of 32 |
| 27th of 321483 | Opponent Elo | 149321st of 32 |
| 19th of 321494 | Elo rating | 15474th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 2–6 | 2–5 |
| Last 10 | 2–6 | 2–5 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | 2–5 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | — |
| Overs–unders | 4–4 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4 | 3–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 1–3 EDM in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.