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Edmonton Oilers at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast

Final/OTESPN+

Away

Oilers

4-4-2

3–4

at

Home

Canucks

5-5-0

EDM 59%VAN 41%

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Rogers Arena · ESPN+

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.

VAN favored EDM favored7 scoring plays
P1P2P3OTVAN50%EDM

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Canucks

Scoring summary

  • OT1:43Kiefer Sherwood Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Brock Boeser (2), Conor Garland (8)3–4
  • P314:57Leon Draisaitl Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (11), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (6)3–3
  • P31:21John (Jack) Roslovic Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Vasily Podkolzin (4)2–3
  • P219:19Kiefer Sherwood Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Boeser (1), Elias Pettersson (1)1–3
  • P216:32Leon Draisaitl Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (3), John (Jack) Roslovic (2)1–2
  • P22:22Elias Pettersson Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Filip Hronek (6), Conor Garland (7)0–2
  • P115:42Brock Boeser Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Evander Kane (4), Marcus Pettersson (1)0–1

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P216:32Leon Draisaitl Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (3), John (Jack) Roslovic (2)EDM 1 – 2 VAN · EDM 15% → 33% +18
  2. P219:19Kiefer Sherwood Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Boeser (1), Elias Pettersson (1)EDM 1 – 3 VAN · VAN 69% → 87% +18
  3. P31:21John (Jack) Roslovic Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Vasily Podkolzin (4)EDM 2 – 3 VAN · EDM 12% → 30% +18
  4. P314:57Leon Draisaitl Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (11), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (6)EDM 3 – 3 VAN · EDM 12% → 53% +41
  5. OT1:43Kiefer Sherwood Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Brock Boeser (2), Conor Garland (8)EDM 3 – 4 VAN · VAN 48% → 93% +46

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Oilers 59%

LeanMiss
EDM 59%VAN 41%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

Market
EDM 59%
ML EDM -160 / VAN +135
Pre-line forecast
EDM 54%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
EDM 51%
Ratings vs. market
−7.8 pts
EDM: Elo 51.3%, market 59.1%
Fair odds
EDM -145
VAN +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
EDM 3.5 – 3.0 VAN
Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorEDMVANWhy
Team rating15461493Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Rest−30−30VAN and EDM on the second night of a back-to-back
Starting goalies−2+7EDM: Calvin Pickard: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsEDM +9 EloEDM 51.3%
Market-implied ratingsEDM 54.5%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastEDM 53.8%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastEDM 59.1%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

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Edmonton Oilers and Vancouver Canucks compared, with each team's league rank
EDMStatVAN
22nd of 322.9Goals scored2.826th of 32
16th of 323.1Goals allowed3.116th of 32
19th of 32−0.2Margin−0.323rd of 32
2nd of 3255.4%Shot share45.8%28th of 32
26th of 3288.5%Save percentage90.3%14th of 32
20th of 322–4Road vs home1–225th of 32
22nd of 321493Opponent Elo149618th of 32
5th of 321546Elo rating149320th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

OilersCanucks
135014001450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonEDMVAN
Puck line2–75–4
Last 102–75–4
Favorite2–71–3
Underdog—4–1
Overs–unders4–55–4
Overs–unders, last 104–55–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

EDM 7–8 VAN in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 15.