Montreal Canadiens at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Ivan DemidovGoals1
- Ivan DemidovAssists2
- Ivan DemidovPoints3
Canucks- Elias PetterssonGoals1
- Elias PetterssonAssists2
- Elias PetterssonPoints3
Scoring summary
- P316:13Conor Garland Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Elias Pettersson (5), Quinn Hughes (6)4–3
- P311:09Ivan Demidov Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Alexandre Carrier (4), Oliver Kapanen (3)4–2
- P38:19Mike Matheson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexandre Carrier (3), Zachary Bolduc (2)3–2
- P31:50Juraj Slafkovský Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Demidov (7), Lane Hutson (8)2–2
- P215:03Nick Suzuki Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Demidov (6), Juraj Slafkovský (1)1–2
- P26:43Jake DeBrusk Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Quinn Hughes (5), Elias Pettersson (4)0–2
- P14:42Elias Pettersson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Hronek (5), Conor Garland (6)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:42Elias Pettersson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Hronek (5), Conor Garland (6)MTL 0 – 1 VAN · VAN 49% → 64% +15VAN 49% → 64%+15 pts
- P26:43Jake DeBrusk Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Quinn Hughes (5), Elias Pettersson (4)MTL 0 – 2 VAN · VAN 68% → 83% +15VAN 68% → 83%+15 pts
- P215:03Nick Suzuki Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Demidov (6), Juraj Slafkovský (1)MTL 1 – 2 VAN · MTL 13% → 29% +16MTL 13% → 29%+16 pts
- P31:50Juraj Slafkovský Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Demidov (7), Lane Hutson (8)MTL 2 – 2 VAN · MTL 26% → 51% +25MTL 26% → 51%+25 pts
- P38:19Mike Matheson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexandre Carrier (3), Zachary Bolduc (2)MTL 3 – 2 VAN · MTL 50% → 80% +29MTL 50% → 80%+29 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canadiens 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- MTL 51%
- ML MTL -115 / VAN -105
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- MTL: Elo 47.3%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MTL -104
- VAN +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 2.8 – 2.7 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +10 | −8 | MTL: Jakub Dobes: team allows 0.25 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.21 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +19 Elo | VAN 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 54.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MTL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 323.6 | Goals scored | 2.824th of 32 |
| 14th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.014th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.6 | Margin | −0.321st of 32 |
| 14th of 3249.8% | Shot share | 44.5%30th of 32 |
| 19th of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 91.0%10th of 32 |
| 10th of 323–2 | Road vs home | 1–117th of 32 |
| 24th of 321490 | Opponent Elo | 149717th of 32 |
| 19th of 321493 | Elo rating | 149517th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 3–6 | 4–4 |
| Last 10 | 3–6 | 4–4 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 5–4 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4 | 4–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 2–2 VAN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.