Edmonton Oilers at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Darnell NurseGoals1
- Leon DraisaitlAssists2
- Leon DraisaitlPoints2
Kraken- Jordan EberleGoals2
- Matty BeniersAssists2
- Jordan EberlePoints2
Scoring summary
- P314:35Darnell Nurse Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Mattias Ekholm (4), Leon Draisaitl (4)2–3
- P312:11Jordan Eberle Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Matty Beniers (5)1–3
- P215:39Evan Bouchard Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (3), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (5)1–2
- P26:35Tye Kartye Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Winterton (1), Ben Meyers (2)0–2
- P11:23Jordan Eberle Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Matty Beniers (4), Berkly Catton (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:23Jordan Eberle Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Matty Beniers (4), Berkly Catton (2)EDM 0 – 1 SEA · SEA 39% → 54% +15SEA 39% → 54%+15 pts
- P26:35Tye Kartye Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Winterton (1), Ben Meyers (2)EDM 0 – 2 SEA · SEA 61% → 78% +17SEA 61% → 78%+17 pts
- P215:39Evan Bouchard Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (3), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (5)EDM 1 – 2 SEA · EDM 17% → 34% +18EDM 17% → 34%+18 pts
- P312:11Jordan Eberle Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Matty Beniers (5)EDM 1 – 3 SEA · SEA 82% → 97% +15SEA 82% → 97%+15 pts
- P314:35Darnell Nurse Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Mattias Ekholm (4), Leon Draisaitl (4)EDM 2 – 3 SEA · EDM <1% → 13% +12EDM <1% → 13%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 61%
- ML EDM -170 / SEA +145
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.0 pts
- EDM: Elo 53.7%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- EDM -154
- SEA +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.1 – 2.4 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1548 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +5 | EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +26 Elo | EDM 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 62.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 60.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.826th of 32 |
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.912th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.118th of 32 |
| 5th of 3254.9% | Shot share | 47.1%25th of 32 |
| 24th of 3288.6% | Save percentage | 90.9%10th of 32 |
| 19th of 322–3 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 32 |
| 19th of 321494 | Opponent Elo | 15099th of 32 |
| 4th of 321548 | Elo rating | 148124th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  EDM |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 2–6 | 6–2 |
| Last 10 | 2–6 | 6–2 |
| Favorite | 2–6 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | — | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders | 4–4 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4 | 4–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
EDM 7–1 SEA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.