New York Rangers at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Braden SchneiderGoals1
- Braden SchneiderAssists1
- Braden SchneiderPoints2
Oilers- Darnell NurseGoals2
- Jake WalmanAssists2
- Darnell NursePoints2
Scoring summary
- OT2:49J.T. Miller Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Braden Schneider (3), Alexis Lafrenière (4)4–3
- P312:04Taylor Raddysh Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Conor Sheary (4)3–3
- P38:18Braden Schneider Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Cuylle (3), Urho Vaakanainen (1)2–3
- P210:24Darnell Nurse Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Isaac Howard (1), Jake Walman (6)1–3
- P28:48Matt Savoie Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Adam Henrique (4), Leon Draisaitl (6)1–2
- P16:51Darnell Nurse Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Walman (5), Jack Roslovic (3)1–1
- P15:44Jonny Brodzinski Goal (1) Backhand, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:44Jonny Brodzinski Goal (1) Backhand, assists: noneNYR 1 – 0 EDM · NYR 42% → 57% +15NYR 42% → 57%+15 pts
- P16:51Darnell Nurse Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Walman (5), Jack Roslovic (3)NYR 1 – 1 EDM · EDM 42% → 58% +15EDM 42% → 58%+15 pts
- P28:48Matt Savoie Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Adam Henrique (4), Leon Draisaitl (6)NYR 1 – 2 EDM · EDM 56% → 74% +18EDM 56% → 74%+18 pts
- P312:04Taylor Raddysh Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Conor Sheary (4)NYR 3 – 3 EDM · NYR 14% → 47% +33NYR 14% → 47%+33 pts
- OT2:49J.T. Miller Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Braden Schneider (3), Alexis Lafrenière (4)NYR 4 – 3 EDM · NYR 48% → 97% +49NYR 48% → 97%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 58%
- ML NYR +130 / EDM -155
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- EDM: Elo 61.3%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- EDM -140
- NYR +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 2.5 – 3.0 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −1 | NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +80 Elo | EDM 61.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 60.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 60.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 322.2 | Goals scored | 3.218th of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.4 | Goals allowed | 3.220th of 32 |
| 20th of 32−0.2 | Margin | 0.015th of 32 |
| 9th of 3252.0% | Shot share | 54.7%3rd of 32 |
| 2nd of 3292.2% | Save percentage | 88.0%27th of 32 |
| 21st of 314–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 31 |
| 6th of 324–2 | Road vs home | 3–15th of 32 |
| 26th of 321490 | Opponent Elo | 149423rd of 32 |
| 17th of 321501 | Elo rating | 15474th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYR |  EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–5 | 3–8 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 3–4 | 3–8 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | — |
| Overs–unders | 4–7 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 1–4 EDM in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.